Stat of the Day, 14th January 2016
Wednesday’s Result :
2.40 Taunton : Top Wood @ 3/1 BOG 4th at 11/4 (Led to 4 out, weakening when hampered and left 3rd 3 out)
Thursday’s runner goes in the…
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Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.
New Strategy @ 11/4 BOG
It has been a quiet start to 2016 for the Saeed bin Suroor yard with as many runners at last Thursday’s Meydan fixture (4) as he’s had in the UK this year. Then again, it’s all about quality not quantity and he’s already had two winners and a runner-up from his three Chelmsford representatives since New Year.
As a high-profile trainer, there’s nowhere to hide, but thankfully his results do all the talking. Backing every one of his A/W handicappers over the last 7 years (and 2 weeks!) has been a profitable exercise as 83 winners from 264 (31.4% SR) have generated level stakes profits of 96.2pts at a healthy return of 36.4%.
From those 264 runners, his horses are 80/253 (31.6% SR) for 96.8pts (+38.3% ROI) over trips of 6f to 1m4f and they’re also 72/222 (32.4% SR) for 95.1pts (+42.8% ROI) at Classes 2 to 4.
The bin Suroor Class 2 to 4 A/W handicappers over trips of 6f to 1m4f are 69/212 (32.6% SR) for 94.7pts (+44.7% ROI) since the start of 2009.
More specifically, he does well at this venue too. At the previous incarnation of Great Leighs, he had 5 winners from just 17 runners (29.4% SR) for 9.5pts (+55.8% ROI) profit and since the course reopened, he has done particularly well at the sharp end of the market.
At the “new” track, Saeed bin Suroor’s runners priced 4/5 to 4/1 are 10/28 (35.7% SR) for 4.1pts (+14.6% ROI) and in respect of this contest…
- males are 8/18 (44.4% SR) for 6.9pts (+38.4% ROI)
- handicappers are 6/16 (37.5% SR) for 2.7pts (+16.8% ROI)
- those racing at 7/8 furlongs are 6/14 (42.9% SR) for 4.4pts (+31.4% ROI)
- class 4 horses are 4/7 (57.1% SR) for 7pts (+100% ROI)
- 4 yr olds are 4/5 (80% SR) for 5.24pts (+104.8% ROI)
- and Ali Rawlinson is 1 from 1.
That 1 from 1 comes from Ali’s 4 from 5 (11131) record on the bin Suroor string to date and has already generated 6.7pts (+133.9% ROI) profit.
And my recommended bet, based on my data and prices available at 7.35pm is…
A 1pt win bet on New Strategy and that’s at 11/4 BOG with Coral, whilst Betfred / Totesport offer the same odds, but are non-BOG until morning. To see your preferred bookie’s prices, you can always…
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REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS