Stat of the Day, 15th January 2016

Stat of the Day, 15th January 2016

Thursday’s Result :

6.40 Chelmsford : New Strategy @ 11/4 BOG 7th at 11/4 (Mid-division, driven over 1f out, never on terms)

Friday’s runner goes in the…

5.45 Wolverhampton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

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Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.


Bayan Kasirga @ 7/2 BOG


This 6yr old mare is in fine form, finishing 141 in her last three outings with the two wins coming from her last two efforts over this course and distance. She won under today’s jockey Natalie Hambling-Yates in November and then under Tony Hamilton LTO almost three weeks ago.

That run came off a mark of 67 and although raised 2lbs for the win, Natalie’s 7lb claim effectively means Bayan Kasirga is better off today in her bid to improve the already impressive Wolverhampton record of her trainer…

…Richard Fahey, whose handicappers here at Dunstall Park since the start of 2008 have won 85 of their 570 (14.9% SR) races generating level stakes profits of some 267.8pts at an ROI of 47%. These are really good figures and in the context of today’s encounter, here’s how they stack up…

  • 3 to 6 yr olds are 73/447 (16.3% SR) for 315.8pts (+70.6% ROI)
  • Class 5 races : 31/193 (16.1% SR) for 212.9pts (+110.3% ROI)
  • Females are 15/139 (10.8% SR) for 187.6pts (+135% ROI)
  • LTO winners are 19/63 (30.2% SR) for 54pts (+85.7% ROI)
  • and Natalie Hambling-Yates has 2 wins from 3 for 14.9pts (+496.8% ROI)

In addition to all that, over the same 2008-16 timeframe shows that Mr Fahey’s LTO winners who are also previous course and distance winners won yet again on 35 of 155 (22.6% SR) occasions for profits of 36.7pts. Once again in decreasing sample size, these runners are relevent to today’s race because…

  • 5-6 yr olds are 15/52 (28.8% SR) for 48.2pts (+92.7% ROI)
  • those who last ran 16-25 days ago are 14/50 (28% SR) for 33pts (+66% ROI)
  • class 5 races : 11/33 (33.33% SR) for 25.4pts (+77.1% ROI)
  • females are 7/32 (21.9% SR)for 10.6pts (+33.1% ROI)
  • here at Wolverhampton : 10/25 (40% SR) for 33.8pts (+135.4% ROI)
  • over 11-12 furlongs : 7/21 (33.33 %SR) for 14.1pts (+67.1% ROI)
  • and on the Tapeta, they are 3/8 (37.5% SR) for 6.7pts (+83.5% ROI)

And my recommended bet, based on my data and prices available at 7.00pm is…

A 1pt win bet on Bayan Kasirga and that’s at 7/2 BOG with any one of around ten firms offering the same deal. To see your preferred bookie’s prices, you can always…

…click here for the betting on the 5.45 Wolverhampton

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Here is today’s racecard.

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