After a decent week, I suppose it was too much to expect a rousing finale and Saturday proved to be a day to forget. 3rd and 6th, beaten by 12 and 40 lengths respectively at Warwick was followed by even worse over the water.
That’s because our Naas runners were beaten by 17 and 35 lengths into fourth and eighth places and I think it’s probably best not to dwell on it!
Saturday’s results were as follows:
Isaacstown Lad : 3rd at 9/2 (adv 7/2)
Arctic Gold : 6th at 4/1 (adv 9/2)
Rolling Rocket : 4th at 4/1 (adv 7/2)
Mount Brandon : 8th at 5/4 (adv 10/3)
Results to date:
784 winning selections from 2804 = 27.96%
244 winning bets in 726 days = 33.61%
P/L : +89.40pts (+6.16% ROI)
This looks tight/tricky, but Best Example is the one I’d choose to be on, if pushed. Still fairly lightly raced (9 runs, 5 on A/W), this 4 yr old ran better than the bare result of a 4th place finish last time out would suggest. Drawn widest of all in an 11-runner affair at Kempton, he was doing all his best work late on to get within two lengths of the leader.
His yard have good numbers here at Wolverhampton, he runs off an unchanged mark, gets an extra half furlong to run on into and is drawn better in 4 of 7. All of which could easily compensate for that two length deficit and turn Best Example into a 2/1 BOG winner.
I’d also expect Big Time to be there or thereabouts at the finish too, as he has four top 3 finishes fron his last five starts (332 over the last two months, all on A/W). He’s clearly not the horse that was beaten by less than a length in runner-up finishes at Group 1 and Group 2 level in mid-2013, but the fact he was rated 114 at that time suggests he could be better than he has recently shown and/or his current mark of 85.
David Nicholls’ horses go well here at Wolverhampton and if taking to this Tapeta suface first time up, Big Time could well break his losing run with a 7/2 BOG success today.
Paddys Motorbike looks the one to beat here at 2/1 BOG. He was third of seven in a decent enough Class 2 contest at Chelmsford 16 days ago when beaten by less than three qaurters of a length and dropping down in class off the same mark, is well placed to improve upon that result. Talented claimer Josephine Gordon (this girl will be a star in the future) keeps the ride and her claim means that not only is she on the best horse (in my opinion!), they also receive weight all round.
And if that last run at Chelmsford is the precursor to a win for Paddys Motorbike, then I’d expect the 5/1 BOG Precision Five to provide the main challenge. He was one place and 1.25 lengths further back that day last time out and with his mark also unchanged, I can see him getting close, but not quite winning, if both horses run to the same level. His trainer has a decent record at this venue and if the favourite isn’t quite at it today, Precision Five will be waiting in the wings.
4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles as follows…
Best Example/ Paddys Motorbike @ 8/1 (2/1 & 2/1 : generally)
Best Example / Precision Five @ 17/1 (2/1 & 5/1 : Bet365, BetVictor & SkyBet)
Big Time / Paddys Motorbike @ 12.50/1 (7/2 & 2/1 : generally)
Big Time / Precision Five @ 26/1 (7/2 & 5/1: Betfred, Hills & Totesport)
REMINDER: THERE IS NO DOUBLE DUTCH ON SUNDAYS