Stat of the Day, 21st January 2016

Wednesday’s Result :

2.55 Musselburgh : Holly Bush Henry @ 3/1 BOG WON at 5/2 (Held up mid-division, headway before 2 out, soon pushed along to chase leader, kept on to lead towards finish, winning by a neck)

Thursday’s runner goes in the…

4.05 Southwell :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

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Ziggys Star @ 7/2 BOG


Ziggys Star is in prime form of late, having won each of his last two races wearing a hood in Class 5, 7f, A/W handicaps. He followed up a win at Chelmsford with a victory at Wolverhampton 17 days ago and looks well placed to land the hat-trick on his local track, less than 10 miles from home.

He is trained by Mick Appleby, who has enjoyed making the short journey to this course, especially as 97 of his 494 (19.6% SR) runners here since the start of 2012 have been winners, generating level stakes profits of 77.3pts at a healthy enough return of 15.7%. And in the context of today’s race conditions, here’s your Mick Appleby Southwell Stat Pack…

  • handicaps : 86/417 (20.6% SR) for 66.2pts (+15.9% ROI)
  • over 6f to 1m4f : 80/400 (20% SR) for 108.3pts (+27.1% ROI)
  • OR 50-80 : 83/375 (22.1% SR) for 101.2pts (+27% ROI)
  • males : 65/298 (21.8% SR) for 118.7pts (+39.8% ROI)
  • 4/5 yr olds : 53/241 (22% SR) for 69.7pts (+28.9% ROI)
  • 11-25 days since last run : 46/206 (22.3% SR) for 105.5pts (+51.2% ROI)
  • class 5 : 38/157 (24.2% SR) for 72.6pts (+46.2% ROI)
  • ran at Wolverhampton LTO : 17/83 (20.5% SR) for 15.5pts (+18.7% ROI)
  • won LTO : 24/73 (32.9% SR) for 25.6pts (+35.1% ROI)
  • ridden by Liam Jones : 7/16 (43.75% SR) for 28.2pts (+176% ROI)

And a micro? OK, Mick Appleby / Southwell A-W hcps / 7f to 1m4f / males rated 50 to 80 : 40/142 (28.2% SR) for 131.9pts (+92.9% ROI).

And my recommended bet, based on my data and prices available at 7.15pm is…

A 1pt win bet on Ziggys Star and that’s at 7/2 BOG Betfair’s Sportsbook, who are currently the standout price for this one. To see the rest of the market, simply…

…click here for the betting on the 4.05 Southwell

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Here is today’s racecard…

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