Stat of the Day, 22nd January 2016

Thursday’s Result :

4.05 Southwell : Ziggys Star @ 7/2 BOG 6th at 15/8 (In touch, pushed along halfway, ridden 2f out, no impression)

Friday’s runner goes in the…

3.15 Chepstow :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Waldorf Salad @ 11/4 BOG

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Why?

Horse : This 8 yr old gelding comes here on a hat-trick after wins at Towcester (2m 5.5f, soft) five weeks ago and then by 5 lengths at Taunton (2m 7f, heavy) just over three weeks ago, taking his record on heavy ground to 3 from 5 and he’s also 3 from 5 when running within 25 days of his last outing.

All his four career victories have come from the 13 races he has contested in fields of 7 to 11 runners, with 2 wins from 5 over fences and January has been a good month for him in the past, yielding 2 wins and a place from 4 efforts.

Trainer : Venetia Williams has an excellent record over the last four years with her heavy ground handicap chasers, who since the start of 2012, have won 48 of 223 (21.5% SR) races for level stakes profits of 37.2pts at an ROI of 16.7%. Based on today’s race conditions, those 223 heavy ground chasers are…

  • 47/209 (22.5% SR) for 47.5pts (+22.7% ROI) for male runners
  • 38/180 (21.1% SR) for 43.8pts (+24.3% ROI) at trips of 2m3.5f to 3m5.5f
  • 40/172 (23.3% SR) for 62.pts (+36.4% ROI) at the ages of 7 to 11
  • 30/115 (26.1% SR) for 35.3pts (+30.7% ROI) 6 to 25 days after their last run
  • 16/75 (21.3% SR) for 12.7pts (+16.9% ROI) at Class 3
  • 13/40 (32.5% SR) for 15.1pts (+37.6% ROI) from LTO winners
  • 5/18 (27.8% SR) for 19pts (+105.3% ROI) here at Chepstow

And a micro? Male / 7 to 11 yr olds / 2m3.5f to 3.5.5f / 6 to 25 days since last run = 21/68 (30.9% SR) for 53.8pts (+79.1% ROI), from which LTO winners are 6/15 (40% SR) for 13.1pts (+87.2% ROI) and Chepstow runners are 4/9 (44.4% SR) for 25.8pts (+286.4% ROI).

The fact that this 8 yr old now competes in a Class 3 hcp chase off the back of an LTO win sets us up for the following…

General Stat : Class 3/4 male chasers aged 6 to 9 yrs old who won a handciap chase by 2 to 10 lengths LTO, 11 to 150 days ago are 280/1246 (22.5% SR) for 255pts (+20.5% ROI) profit since the start of 2008.

So that’s around 150 bets per year, manageable for some, too many for others. With such a large sample size, there are many ways to approach it, but I’m just going to give you four, very logical, profitable filters…

  • those who last ran 11 to 45 days ago are 256/1084 (23.6% SR) for 267.8pts (+24.7% ROI)
  • those who won by 5 to 10 lengths LTO are 160/670 (23.9% SR) for 175.5pts (+26.2% ROI)
  • Class 3 chasers are 132/637 (20.7% SR) for 162.4pts (+25.5% ROI)
  • 8 yr olds are 77/347 (22.2% SR) for 78.9pts (+22.7% ROI)

And your second free micro of the day? Class 3 chasers running 11 to 45 days after a win by 5 to 10 lengths LTO are 56/233 (24% SR) for 118.6pts (50.9% ROI), of which 8yr olds are 14/64 (21.9% SR) for 37.1pts (+58% ROI).

And my recommended bet, based on my data and prices available at 5.15pm is…

A 1pt win bet on Waldorf Salad and that’s at 11/4 BOG with Bet365, who are currently the standout price for this one. To see the rest of the market, simply…

…click here for the betting on the 3.15 Chepstow

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today’s racecard…

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