Thursday’s Result :
4.05 Southwell : Ziggys Star @ 7/2 BOG 6th at 15/8 (In touch, pushed along halfway, ridden 2f out, no impression)
Friday’s runner goes in the…
Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.
Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.
Waldorf Salad @ 11/4 BOG
Horse : This 8 yr old gelding comes here on a hat-trick after wins at Towcester (2m 5.5f, soft) five weeks ago and then by 5 lengths at Taunton (2m 7f, heavy) just over three weeks ago, taking his record on heavy ground to 3 from 5 and he’s also 3 from 5 when running within 25 days of his last outing.
All his four career victories have come from the 13 races he has contested in fields of 7 to 11 runners, with 2 wins from 5 over fences and January has been a good month for him in the past, yielding 2 wins and a place from 4 efforts.
Trainer : Venetia Williams has an excellent record over the last four years with her heavy ground handicap chasers, who since the start of 2012, have won 48 of 223 (21.5% SR) races for level stakes profits of 37.2pts at an ROI of 16.7%. Based on today’s race conditions, those 223 heavy ground chasers are…
- 47/209 (22.5% SR) for 47.5pts (+22.7% ROI) for male runners
- 38/180 (21.1% SR) for 43.8pts (+24.3% ROI) at trips of 2m3.5f to 3m5.5f
- 40/172 (23.3% SR) for 62.pts (+36.4% ROI) at the ages of 7 to 11
- 30/115 (26.1% SR) for 35.3pts (+30.7% ROI) 6 to 25 days after their last run
- 16/75 (21.3% SR) for 12.7pts (+16.9% ROI) at Class 3
- 13/40 (32.5% SR) for 15.1pts (+37.6% ROI) from LTO winners
- 5/18 (27.8% SR) for 19pts (+105.3% ROI) here at Chepstow
And a micro? Male / 7 to 11 yr olds / 2m3.5f to 3.5.5f / 6 to 25 days since last run = 21/68 (30.9% SR) for 53.8pts (+79.1% ROI), from which LTO winners are 6/15 (40% SR) for 13.1pts (+87.2% ROI) and Chepstow runners are 4/9 (44.4% SR) for 25.8pts (+286.4% ROI).
The fact that this 8 yr old now competes in a Class 3 hcp chase off the back of an LTO win sets us up for the following…
General Stat : Class 3/4 male chasers aged 6 to 9 yrs old who won a handciap chase by 2 to 10 lengths LTO, 11 to 150 days ago are 280/1246 (22.5% SR) for 255pts (+20.5% ROI) profit since the start of 2008.
So that’s around 150 bets per year, manageable for some, too many for others. With such a large sample size, there are many ways to approach it, but I’m just going to give you four, very logical, profitable filters…
- those who last ran 11 to 45 days ago are 256/1084 (23.6% SR) for 267.8pts (+24.7% ROI)
- those who won by 5 to 10 lengths LTO are 160/670 (23.9% SR) for 175.5pts (+26.2% ROI)
- Class 3 chasers are 132/637 (20.7% SR) for 162.4pts (+25.5% ROI)
- 8 yr olds are 77/347 (22.2% SR) for 78.9pts (+22.7% ROI)
And your second free micro of the day? Class 3 chasers running 11 to 45 days after a win by 5 to 10 lengths LTO are 56/233 (24% SR) for 118.6pts (50.9% ROI), of which 8yr olds are 14/64 (21.9% SR) for 37.1pts (+58% ROI).
And my recommended bet, based on my data and prices available at 5.15pm is…
A 1pt win bet on Waldorf Salad and that’s at 11/4 BOG with Bet365, who are currently the standout price for this one. To see the rest of the market, simply…
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REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS
Here is today’s racecard…