Stat of the Day, 23rd January 2016

Friday’s Result :

3.15 Chepstow : Waldorf Salad @ 11/4 BOG non-runner (meeting abandoned)

Saturday’s runner goes in the…

3.55 Taunton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

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Winning Spark @ 3/1 BOG

Why?

This 9yr old gelding comes here off the back of a heavy ground course and distance win here 10 days ago and although penalised for the win, still receives weight from all of his main rivals. And whilst his hurdles record is quite modest at 2 wins from 18, conditions here look perfect for him.

As those 2 wins have both come from 10 rides under today’s jockey James Best, both have come from six runs here at Taunton and both have come from four January outings.

In short, Winning Spark is 2 from 2 here at Taunton in January under James Best with wins coming at today’s 2m3f trip on heavy ground and over 2m 3.5f on soft ground.

He is trained by Jackie du Plessis, who has found some success in handicap contests since taking her licence almost five years ago. To date 12 of her 81 (14.8% SR) handicappers have been winners with the resultant level stakes profits of 8.2pts providing a reasonable ROI of 10.1% from blind backing.

We can, of course, improve those figures by introducing some logical filters that apply to today’s contest. Firstly we find that all 12 winners come from Miss du Plessis’ 75 male runners with that 16% strike rate generating 14.2pts profit at an ROI of 18.9%, with those 75 runners providing the following stats…

  • those rated (OR) 95 to 125 are 12/67 (17.9% SR) for 22.2pts (+33.1% ROI)
  • those priced 15/8 to 12/1 are 12/63 (19.1% SR) for 26.2pts (+41.6% ROI)
  • those ridden by James Best are 11/62 (17.7% SR) for 12.4pts (+20% ROI)
  • those racing over trips of 19/20 furlongs are 8/20 (40% SR) for 43.3pts (+216.6% ROI)
  • those racing on heavy ground are 6/18 (33.3% SR) for 21.7pts (+120.5% ROI)

And Jackie’s male NH handicappers rated 95 to 125 racing over 2m3f to 2m4f at odds of 15/8 to 10/1 under James Best are 7 from 12 (58.3% SR) for 36.5pts (+304.5% ROI), with those running on heavy ground winning four from five (80% SR) for 21.2pts profit at an ROI of 423.8%.

And my recommended bet, based on my data and prices available at 10.10pm is…

A 1pt win bet on Winning Spark and that’s at 3/1 BOG with Boylesports / Paddy Power / Seanie Mac, whilst Betfred / Totesport offer the same price, but don’t go BOG until morning. To see the rest of the market, simply…

…click here for the betting on the 3.55 Taunton

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today’s racecard…

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