Monday’s Result :
1.55 Newcastle : Willie hall @ 11/4 BOG non-runner (meting abandoned)
Tuesday’s runner goes in the…
Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.
Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.
Throthehatch @ 4/1 BOG
Throthehatch has travelled 230-odd miles South from his Kinross hase to run here today and since 2012, Lucinda Russell’s winter jumpers (ie Oct-Mar) travelling over 200 miles to race are 32/242 (13.2% SR) for 27.2pts (+11.2% ROI). Of those 242 runners, those racing over trips opf 2m to 2m6f are 18/138 (13% SR) for 40.5pts (+29.4% ROI), those ridden by Peter Buchanan are 16/99 (16.2% SR) for 32.4pts (+32.7% ROI), whilst those coming here to Wetherby have 13 wins from 86 (15.1% SR) for profits of 1707pts at an ROI of 20.6%.
Throthehatch has finished 1151 in his four runs since swtiching to the bigger obstacles, all ridden by today’s jockey Peter Buchanan and that record contains 2 wins from 2 soft ground runs and a win from his only ever effort on heavy ground, a win over 2m3f (LTO), so he should be suited by conditions that are pretty similar to that last run/won at Haydock just under four weeks ago, when landing a handicap novices chase by 5 lengths.
That’s interesting, too, as since 2010, male Class 3 handicap chasers aged 6 yo 9 years running 11 to 150 days after a handicap chase win LTO by 2 to 10 lengths are 97/471 (20.6% SR) for 97.4pts (+20.7% ROI) with those running 11 to 28 days since that win going to to score again on 72 of 288 (25% SR) occasions for profits of 142pts (+49.3% ROI), whilst those who won by 4 to 10 lengths last time out are 66/277 (23.8% SR) for 116.4pts (+42% ROI)
And there’s one more for you! Handicap chasers rated (OR) 95-120 who won a Novice Chase LTO 4 to 45 days ago are 84/346 (27.2% SR) for 78.3pts (+22.6% ROI) since 2012, with those winning a handicap novice chase LTO winning again 86 times from 308 (27.9% SR) for 80.7pts (+26.2% ROI) and Class 3 runners are 24/86 (27.9% SR) for 57.8pts (+67.2% ROI)
And my recommended bet, based on my data and prices available at 6.00pm is…
A 1pt win bet on Throthehatch and that’s at 4/1 BOG with Bet365, BetVictor and/or Hills, whilst both Betway and Ladbrokes also off the same price, but don’t/won’t go BOG until morning. To take your pick of the firms, simply…
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REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS
Here is today’s racecard…