Well, Tuesday was just dire. No near misses, no hard luck stories, just poor, I’m afraid!
Fourth and sixth of eight beaten by 1.75 and 3.5 lengths respectively in our opener at Southwell wasn’t the best of starts, but it was better than what followed 25 minutes later at Leicester!
There, we ended up with third and fourth of just five runners with both picks thoroughly well beaten by 10 and 75 lengths! I do always try to find something positive from the previous day’s erformances/results, but the best I can muster this morning is the thought that surely I can’t/won’t have another such bad day for a long while?
Tuesday’s results were as follows:
Dungannon : 4th at 3/1 (adv 3/1)
Mappin Time : 6th at 3/1 (adv 3/1)
Kings Apollo : 3rd at 4/1 (adv 5/2)
Call The Detective : 4th at 5/2 (adv 9/4)
Results to date:
787 winning selections from 2836 = 27.75%
244 winning bets in 734 days = 33.24%
P/L : +73.40pts (+5.00% ROI)
The obvious starting point for me is the hat-trick seeking Nautical Twilight, a 6yr old mare who has really taken to the bigger obstacles finshing 2411 in her four efforts to date. She has shown a real liking for the softer conditions that are abundant at present and was a very comfortable 10 lengths winner without coming off the bridle here over course and distance last time out. Yes, she’s up in weight for that win, but she seemed to have plenty to spare that day and now having had a month to rest, I fancy Nautical Twilight to go in again at 9/4 BOG.
In opposition, I felt that whilst Aye Well has been running well of late, the handicapper seems to have put the brakes on him. He failed to defy top weight last time out, but is up another pound, so I’ve cautiously swerved him in favour of another in form runner, Uno Valoroso, who has finished as runner-up in back to back soft ground contests here at Catterick on his last two outings.
The latest of those runs saw him go down by just three quarters of a length over course and distance almost a fortnight ago and running off the same mark here, he lurks dangerously at the foot of the weights, receiving weight all round, including 15lbs from my first choice, which should make Uno Valoroso competitive at the very least at odds of around 3/1 BOG.
A hurdles winner over 2m , but still a maiden after 10 efforts on the level, Russian Bolero strikes me as being better than his results suggest. He was second in a Listed contest in Germany in the summer of 2014 ands was considered good enought to take his place in the German Derby that year, despite not running his best race. He produced his best effort in the UK to date last time out, when a beaten favourite here a week ago.
He was only beaten by one from the in-form Ian Williams yard, who are flying at present, so no disgrace there and running off the same mark over the same track and trip, this could finally be Russian Bolero‘s day at around 9/2 BOG, but if he does find one just too good for him again, it might well be an old adversary who beats him in the guise of the 9/4 BOG Rivers Run.
This one is trained by Ralph Beckett, who is profitable to follow generally, and also at this track. In addition to his overall record, he has a near 25% strike rate in Kempton maidens since 2010 and has a good record when only having the one runner at a meeting, as he does here.
As for Rivers Run herself, she ran well over this trip, finishing 3rd on debut at Wolverhampton in December, where she had Russian Bolero a place and 3 lengths further and despite being the victim of a tactical affair over a shorter trip on her only other run, she’ll be dangerous back at 1m4f today.
4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles as follows…
Nautical Twilight / Rivers Run @ 10.38/1 (9/4 & 5/2 : Betway, BetVictor, SkyBet & Ladbrokes)
Nautical Twilight / Russian Bolero @ 21.75/1 (9/4 & 6/1 : Betway)
Uno Valoroso / Rivers Run @ 13/1 (3/1 & 5/2 : Bet365 & Ladbrokes)
Uno Valoroso / Russian Bolero @ 25.25/1 (11/4 & 6/1 : Betway)
REMINDER: THERE IS NO DOUBLE DUTCH ON SUNDAYS