Stat of the Day, 28th January 2016

Wednesday’s Result :

7.10 Kempton : Master of Song @ 4/1 BOG 6th at 11/4 (report to follow)

Thursday’s runner goes in the…

2.40 Southwell :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

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Rupert Boy @ 100/30 BOG


This 3 yr old looks dangerous at the foot of the weights dropping down a furlong from an excellent run here over 7f last time out, nine days ago. He was only headed entering the final furlong and was then still only beaten by a head and as the third place has won since, we should have every chance here, where it is hoped the first time visor will make a difference.

He is trained by Scott Dixon and will be ridden by Kieran O’Neill who, since the start of last year has won of 7 of the 35 (20 %SR) Scott Dixon handicappers that he has ridden at odds of 12/1 and shorter. Thes rides have generated levels takes profits of 45.5pts at a very attractive ROI of 130.1%.

In addition to the above, we should consider Scott’s record here at this venue, where he has done pretty well over the last couple of years. In numerical terms, since the start of 2014, in Southwell A/W handicaps, his runners are 25/165 (15.2% SR) for 117.8pts (+71.4% ROI) profit, with the following angles of interest today…

  • male runners are 22/135 (16.3% SR) for 84.2pts (+62.3% ROI)
  • those racing 4 to 25 days after their last run are 22/112 (19.6% SR) for 112.5pts (+100.4% ROI)
  • Class 6 runners are 15/79 (19% SR) for 113.9pts (+144.1% ROI)
  • those rated (OR) 46 to 60 are 13/67 (19.4% SR) for 120.2pts (+179.4% ROI)
  • those placed 2nd, 3rd or 4th last time out are 13/51 (25.5% SR) for 82.8pts (+162.3% ROI)
  • those ridden by Kieran O’Neill are 6/29 (20.7% SR) for 34.6pts (+119.1% ROI)
  • 3 yr olds are 5/27 (18.5% SR) for 33.7 pts (+124.8% ROI)
  • and those wearing a visor are 4/17 (23.5% SR) for 9pts at an ROI of 53%.

And my recommended bet, based on my data and prices available at 7.00pm is…

A 1pt win bet on Rupert Boy and that’s at 100/30 BOG which is widely available, although 7/2 is on offer from Betfred / Totesport, but they don’t/won’t go BOG until morning. To take your pick of the firms, simply…

…click here for the betting on the 2.40 Southwell

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Here is today’s racecard…

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