Although still no winning double this week, Wednesday was as close as we’ve been, as Nautical Twilight’s defeat by a neck at Catterick was all that stood between us and a near-15/1 payout.
He stayed on well, but was unable to quite reel in the leader and I suppose the concession of 15lbs in weight might have played its part in difficult conditions.
Our second race at Kempton saw Rivers Run continue her progression over 1m4f, asserting control in the final furlong to score by three parts of a length to further enhance her yard’s record in Kempton maidens.
Wednesday’s results were as follows:
Nautical Twilight : 2nd at 7/2 (adv 9/4)
Uno Valoroso : 5th at 11/2 (adv 11/4)
Rivers Run : WON at 9/4 (adv 5/2)
Russian Bolero : 5th at 3/1 (adv 6/1)
Results to date:
788 winning selections from 2840 = 27.75%
244 winning bets in 735 days = 33.20%
P/L : +71.40pts (+4.86% ROI)
When I looking for horses to back last night/this morning, I liked the look of Hassadin, but at 2/1 BOG was a little short for my own personal betting strategies, but ideal as half of a (hopefully successful) double. A consistent sort, who is always there or thereabouts, he won well last time out, making all to score by 6 lengths in treacherous conditions on Boxing Day and with Harry Cobden in the saddle again today, another win wouldn’t be a massive surprise.
As backup, I marginally prefer Running Wolf to Jumpandtravel, although I’m fully aware of Sod’s Law! As a 5yr old, age is certainly on the side of Running Wolf, who is now rated just 4lbs higher than when he won this very race a year ago. Jockey Killian Moore has won more than his fair share of races over the last 2 or 3 months, Alex Hales’ horses are in generally good nick lately and the yard does well here at Fakenham, all pointing to another bold effort at 3/1 BOG.
The in-form horse is clearly the 2/1 BOG favourite Clock On Tom after landing back to back hurdle wins in the first half of Novemeber, then resating for 8 weeks before reappearing at Lingfield 16 days ago to land a similar contrest to this one over today’s trip. He’s up just 2lbs for that win, Luke Morris retains the ride and with a serious lack of any other recent form in the field, he should be landing this one too.
The one I do like from an E/W perspective would be Ian Williams’ Ferryview Place, although his record doesn’t scream success to you. 4 wins from 43 isn’t great, but at 9.5/10 furlongs, he has at least won 3 of 14, which isn’t too bad when competing in this grade full of generally inconsistent/poor horses.
His best efforts come going left handed wearing cheekpieces, but the major positive is the form of the yard : 9 from 37 in the last month and since Chelmsford re-opened, they are 6/13 here, suggesting a cheeky 8/1 BOG each way punt with Ladbrokes might not be a bad call.
4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles as follows…
Hassadin / Clock On Tom @ 8/1 (2/1 & 2/1 : Boylesports, BetVictor , Hills & Seanie Mac)
Hassadin / Ferryview Place @ 26/1 (2/1 & 8/1 : Ladbrokes)
Running Wolf / Clock On Tom @ 11/1 (3/1 & 2/1 : Bet365 & BetVictor)
Running Wolf / Ferryview Place @ 35/1 (3/1 & 8/1 : Hills & Ladbrokes)
REMINDER: THERE IS NO DOUBLE DUTCH ON SUNDAYS