After comiong very close on Wednesday, we got back to winning ways yesterday and although a 9.5/1 double isn’t quite the previously missing £33m lottery ticket, it is at least a decent enough result.
I really fancied Hassadin at Fakenham, but hasdn’t backed it at 2/1, so I was delighted with his drift out to 5/2, meaning I was able to get on a the better price and we were rewarded with apatient ride from Harry Cobden, stering the horse to a fairly comfortable 3.5 length victory.
But, as we’ve had lots of near misses of late, I wasn’t counting my chickens ahead of the Chelmsford race, where I liked the look of Clock On Tom, who proceeded to make most of the runnong and stayed on well to win by just over a length. The only surprise was that our 2/1 shot only shotened by quarter of a point, I though he might go lower than 7/4!
Thursday’s results were as follows:
Hassadin : WON at 5/2 (adv 2/1)
Running Wolf : 5th at 10/3 (adv 3/1)
Clock On Tom : WON at 7/4 (adv 2/1)
Ferryview Place : 4th at 8/1 (adv 8/1)
Results to date:
790 winning selections from 2844 = 27.78%
245 winning bets in 736 days = 33.29%
P/L : +74.65pts (+5.07% ROI)
This looks a desperate affair, but that might just be tailor made for course specialist Smugglers Lane, who has three wins and a runner-up finish from just six attempts here. He’s never produced anything anywhere else, so it’s clear that he likes it here and was a winner over 1m5f on his last visit, two starts and 22 days ago. He stayed on well that day, suggesting he might well relish the extra distance today and he’d be my pick at 9/4 BOG.
Shirataki was a length and a half back in third place in that 1m5f event and I’d expect another closely run contest again today. He then went on to win at Kempton, before finishing 7th of 10 here over 1m5f 9 days ago. That seventh place is misleading, as he was only beaten by the combined sum of three heads and three necks ie less than length and that was despite not getting a clear run. The talented 7lb claimer Lulu Stanford is on board again and if they can avoid traffic today, an 11/4 BOG bet might pay dividends.
On paper and in the bookies, this is believed to be a two-horse race and I’m inclined to agree. On A Whim looks well placed to follow up last week’s course and distance victory and although she’s raised 6lbs for the win, her jockey’s claim takes care of half of that and Paddy Bradley will be keen to continue his own recent fine form on what is scheduled to be his only ride of the day.
On A Whim looked pretty comfortable staying on last week and shge could probably have won by more than the near two length margin she actually secured. With a distinct lack of quality on show today, I’d expect her to justify her 2/1 BOG odds to double up.
The majority have already been well tried in the past and still find themselves at this level, so I’m siding with Queen Zain to provide the main opposition, as she’s far from exposed after just five starts and produced her best run to date last time out, when beaten by just a head and a nose into third place over 1m2f at Chelmsford five days ago.
She’s trained by Charlie Fellowes who has a good record in lower grade A/W contests and with this filly already showing she handles this surface well enough in the past, Queen Zain could make this interesting at 5/2 BOG.
4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles as follows…
Smugglers Lane / On A Whim @ 8.75/1 (9/4 & 2/1 : generally)
Smugglers Lane / Queen Zain @ 10.38/1 (9/4 & 5/2 : Boylesports, Coral & Ladbrokes)
Shirataki / On A Whim @ 10.25/1 (11/4 & 2/1 : generally)
Shirataki / Queen Zain @ 12.13/1 (11/4 & 5/2 : generally)
REMINDER: THERE IS NO DOUBLE DUTCH ON SUNDAYS