Stat of the Day, 1st February 2016

Saturday’s Result :

3.25 Lingfield : Forceful Appeal @ 5/2 BOG 5th at 3/1 (Towards rear, ridden over 2f out, never a factor)

Monday’s runner goes in the…

3.55 Kempton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.


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Queen Aggie @ 11/2 non-BOG


Jockey George Downing is in decent nick at the moment, having won four of his last fourteen races, mainly riding for Tony Carroll, who seems to thrive in particular type of race, as since the start of 2009, his record in Class 5, 7 furlong A/W handicaps here at Kempton stands at 8 winners frm 326 (22.2% SR) for level stakes profits of 42.1pts at an ROI of 117% and those 36 runners can be further analysed as follows…

  • those running 6 to 60 days after their last race are 8/31 (25.8% SR) for 47.1pts (+152% ROI)
  • 5 to 10 yr olds are 8/25 (32% SR) for 53.1pts (+212.4% ROI)
  • those priced at 12/1 or shorter are 7/21 (33.33% SR) for 35.7pts (+170.1% ROI)
  • those with a top 4 finish last time out are 4/16 (25% SR) for 8.8pts (+55% ROI)

and 5 to 10 yr olds priced at 12/1 or shorter, 6 to 60 days after their last run are 7 from 13 (53.9% SR) for 43.7pts (+336.3% ROI) profit, of which those with a top 4 finish LTO are 4/7 (57.1% SR) for 17.8pts (+254.2% ROI).

I accept/appreciate that a sample size of 36 runners is neither always reliable nor is it one I’d normally rely upon for SotD, but fear not, for I have more!

Queen Aggie is a 6yr old mare who was a winner over 6f at Chelmsford last time out 11 days ago, just snatching the lead in the final strides, suggesrting she’ll relish the extra furlong here. She’s only raised 3lbs for the win which came after a series of unplaced efforts (9964) since finishing third at Wolverhampton back in mid-October.

That win 11 days ago was awelcome return to form and horses who won LTO less than 30 days ago after 3 or more consecutive unplaced efforts are 124/571 (21.7% SR) for 153.1pts (+26.8% ROI) in Kempton A/W handicaps since 2008. 571 runners is a much more reliable dataset to work from and here are just four of the profitable angles you could draw from those figures…

  • those last seen 6 to 25 days ago are 112/486 (23.1% SR) for 164pts (+33.7% ROI)
  • those priced at 5/4 to 11/1 are 110/461 (23.9% SR) for 186.3pts (+40.4% ROI)
  • those raised 1 to 4 lbs for their LTO win are 51/237 (21.5% SR) for 75pts (+31.7% ROI)
  • those who won by a head or less are 17/75 (22.7% SR) for 34.3pts (+45.8% ROI)

and those priced at 9/4 to 9/1, 6 to 25 days after their last run and raised by 1 to 5 lbs are 51/187 (27.3% SR) for 142.6pts at an ROI of 76.2%

And my recommended bet, based on my data and prices available at 8.25pm is…

A 1pt bet on Queen Aggie and that’s at 11/2 non-BOG with Ladbrokes (they will go BOG in the morning). There’s plenty of 5/1 BOG around, though, but I do expect this one to shorten. To see your preferred bookies’ prices, simply…

…click here for the betting on the 3.55 Kempton

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Here is today’s racecard…

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