Monday’s Result :
3.55 Kempton : Queen Aggie @ 11/2 5th at 3/1 (In rear, effort over 1f out, kept on inside final furlong, got going too late and lost by less than 1.5 lengths)
Tuesday’s runner goes in the…
Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.
Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.
Jacob’s Pillow @ 6/1 BOG
Today’s jockey, Daniel Tudhope has been rapidly improving over the past few years and has now reached the point where he’s profitable to follow in lower grade handicaps, not that he can’t win the bigger contests, of course!
And since the start of 2012 in Class 3 to 7 handicaps, his record is 236 winners from 1347 rides for a strike rate of 17.5% and level stakes profits of 247.5pts at an ROI of 18.4%. Of those 1347 runners, 3 to 6 yr olds are 201/1067 (18.8% SR) for 302.8pts (+28.4% ROI), whilst those priced at 5/2 to 8/1 are 147/751 (19.6% SR) for 141.4pts (+18.8% ROI)
And put together, 3 to 6 yrs old at 5/2 to 8/1, like Jacob’s Pillow today, are 112/537 (20.9% SR) for 101.8pts (+19% ROI)
Jacob’s Pillow is a useful enough sort and was a winner last time out when scoring here by five lengths (and could easily have been more!) over course and distance 23 days ago. he wasn’t winning out of turn either after knocking on the door with finishes of 3233 in his four previous outings.
And that LTO win puts him in with a band of 287 horses, who have run in A/W handicaps over trips of 6 to 10.5 furlongs at odds of 6/4 t0 10/1, 3 to 45 days after an LTO win by five lengths or more. 69 of the 287 (24% SR) went on to win again, producing profits of 70.9pts (+24.7% ROI), broken down as follows…
- males are 56/220 (25.5% SR) for 74.2pts (+33.7% ROI)
- 3 to 5 yr olds are 54/212 (25.5% SR) for 79.6pts (+37.6% ROI)
- those last seen 11 to 30 days ago are 40/154 (26% SR) for 72.7pts (+47.2% ROI)
- runners here at Southwell are 19/62 (30.7% SR) for 234pts (+37.7% ROI)
and 3-5 yr old males are 41/152 (27% SR) for 75.9pts at an ROI of 49.9%
And my recommended bet, based on my data and prices available at 5.55pm is…
A 1pt bet on Jacob’s Pillow and that’s at 6/1 BOG with Bet365 or BetVictor, whilst the same ios offer from both Betway and Ladbrokes, but that won’t be BOG until tomorrow morning. To take your pick…
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REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS