Tuesday’s Result :
2.30 Southwell : Jacob’s Pillow @ 6/1 BOG 2nd at 11/2 (Tracked leaders, ridden 2f out, every chance approaching final furlong, one pace final furlong)
Wednesday’s runner goes in the…
Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.
Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.
Willie Hall @ 100/30 BOG
If the name sounds familiar, it might be becasue I selected him 9 days ago for a similar contest here at Newcastle that was lost to the weather, but the reasons behind rthe selection are just as valid today.
He was a winner by 6 lengths over 1m7.5f up at Ayr last time out, 6 days ago in similarly heavy conditions and despite having been raised 7lbs for the win, he should give us a good run for our money.
Trained by Lisa Harrison, who it’s fair to say isn’t exactly a household name just yet, but she has carved out a niche where she has found success over the last couple of years, because if you backed all her handicap chasers priced at 6/4 to 15/2 since the start of 2014, you’d already be looking at 12 winners from 43 (27.9% SR) for 28.2pts (+65.6% ROI).
That was enough to spark my interest, but closer examination of those 43 runners (all males running in the UK) in relation to this race threw up the following further reasons for encouragement…
- carrying 9-9 to 11-2 : 12/38 (31.6% SR) for 33.2pts (+87.4% ROI)
- ridden by a 5 to 10lb claimer : 11/37 (29.7% SR) for 30.8pts (+83.2% ROI)
- rated (OR) 65-100 : 10/33 (30.3% SR) for 27.8pts (+106.7% ROI)
- 4 to 18 days since last run : 10/27 (37% SR) for 32.4pts (+120% ROI)
- up by 1 to 8lbs from last win : 8/27 (29.6% SR) for 20.5pts (+76% ROI)
- 5lb jockey claim : 6/21 (28.6% SR) for 17pts (+81.1% ROI)
- class 4 : 5/17 (29.4% SR) for 11.1pts (+65% ROI)
- ridden by Callum Bewley : 4/14 (28.6% SR) for 11.2pts (+79.6% ROI)
- soft/heavy ground : 5/11 (45.5% SR) for 22.5pts (+204.7% ROI)
And my recommended bet, based on my data and prices available at 8.15pm is…
A 1pt bet on Willie Hall and that’s at 100/30 BOG with Bet365, BetVictor or Hills, so to take your pick…
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