Stat of the Day, 4th February 2016

Wednesday’s Result :

4.20 Newcastle : Willie Hall @ 100/30 BOG 5th at 5/1 (In rear, effort 4 out, hampered 4 out, never dangerous)

Thursday’s runner goes in the…

3.25 Southwell :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

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The Lock Master @ 5/1 BOG


This 9yr old gelding has certainly been aropund the block a few times, but still runs well after over 100 races! He’s won 15 of 109 starts (13.76% SR) to date, of which he’s 10/61 (16.39% SR) on the all-weather, including an excellent 7 from 32 (21.88% SR) record here at Southwell, where his trainer does very well indeed.

Mick Appleby’s record in A/W handicaps here since the start of 2012 stands at 86 winners from 428 (20.1% SR) runners producing level stakes profits of 55.2pts at an ROI of 12.9% with his male representatives winning 57 of 254 (22.4% SR) for 95.5pts (+37.6% ROI). And that’s a nice enough angle to be fair, but if want to further assess these male runners…

  • those last seen 6 to 25 days ago are 41/151 (27.2% SR) for 116pts (+76.9% ROI)
  • top 3 finishers LTO are 33/117 (28.2% SR) for 42.3pts (+36.2% ROI)
  • those running at today’s 1m4f trip are 7/30 (23.3% SR) for 13pts (+43.2% ROI)

The Lock Master was third here just nine days ago, but beaten by less than three lengths, but now drops back down to Class 4 from that C3 contest and since the start of 2011, Mick Appleby’s handicap class droppers are 62/452 (13.7% SR) for 63.2pts (+14% ROI) with the following angles of interest here…

  • those dropping 1 class are 50/389 (12.9% SR) for 58.3pts (+15% ROI)
  • those beaten by 2 to 15 lengths LTO are 42/27 (15.4% SR) for 93.5pts (+34.3% ROI)
  • males are 40/269 (14.9% SR) for 95.4pts (+35.5% ROI)
  • Class 4/5 runners are 34/203 (16.7% SR) for 120.1pts (+59.2% ROI)
  • Those who ran at Class 3/4 LTO are 28/202 (13.9% SR) for 94.3pts (+46.7% ROI)
  • Thiose racing over this 1m4f trip are 11/48 (22.9% SR) for 55.2pts (+115% ROI)

And my recommended bet, based on my data and prices available at 6.10pm is…

A 1pt bet on The Lock Master and that’s at 5/1 BOG with over half a dozen firms, so to pick your preferred bookie…

…click here for the betting on the 3.25 Southwell

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Here is today’s racecard…

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