Double Dutch, 4th February 2016

The frustrating recent run of finding a winner with a placer continued unabated yesterday, as Ballyrath’s 7 length defeat as a runner-up consigned us to another 2pt loss on the day and this was after Special Catch defied a drift in the market to score by a length and a quarter in what developed into a two-horse race an hour earlier.

A winner in one race and a runner-up in the other isn’t particularly bad form, but it’s not quite good enough. However, there’s no point dwelling on ifs and maybes, so let’s just crack on!

Wednesday’s results were as follows:

Special Catch : WON at 11/4 (adv 2/1)
Lord Wishes : PU at 5/2 (adv 11/4)
Ballyrath : 2nd at 9/4 (adv 15/8)
Walk In The Mill : 5th at 10/3 (adv 4/1)

Results to date:
796 winning selections from 2864 = 27.79%
246 winning bets in 741 days = 33.20%

Stakes: 1481.00pts
Returns: 1550.53pts
P/L : +69.53pts (+4.69% ROI)

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Today’s Selections…

1.50 Southwell

Sir Geoffrey absolutely loves it round here and will hope to build on his 6 from 24 record on this track. He’s also got 15 career wins over today’s minimum trip and is 5 from 19 over course and distance. He was a 2.5 length winner here (6f) last time out and with promising claimer Josephine Gordon accounting for 5 of his 6 extra pounds to be carried, I’d expect his usual Southwell effort again today at 9/2 BOG.

Now, recent form might not suggest Extreme Supreme as a worthy 3/1 BOG favourite, but Southwell is quirky and past success is often rewarded/repeated, as in the case of Sir Geoffrey above. In a similar, but less active manner, Extreme Supreme has two wins and a runner-up finish from his three runs at this venue (all at 5f), so the surface shouldn’t be an issue.

He last won over C&D off a mark of 65 and when stepped up to Class 4 off 71, was only beaten by a length and a half, so running back down at Class 6 off a mark 2lbs lower than his last win must put him right in the mix.

4.35 Southwell

Welliesinthewater has done all but win each of his last three starts (all at Chelmsford) finishing as a runner-up by decreasing margins (1L, HD, NK) on each occasion. He now returns to Southwell, where he has actually won in the past, one C&D win from just 2 efforts. He’s up 6lbs for his latest run as the rest of the field was 7+ lengths behind him, but with his jockey claiming three of those back, I’d expect another bold effort from Welliesinthewater at 7/2 BOG.

But as he tends to just find one he can’t beat, that might well be the case here, as he takes on Akfar, who has won two of his last four races, including a fairly comfortable win over course and distance last time out. He has been raised 5lbs for beating Dutch Garden by 1.75 lengths that day, but with that runner-up subsequently going on to win over this trip at Wolverhampton by 2.5 lengths last week, it’s not inconceivable that Akfar would win again here at 9/4 BOG.

4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles as follows…

Extreme Supreme / Akfar @ 12/1 (3/1 & 9/4 : Betfair SB, Hills & Paddy Power)
Extreme Supreme / Welliesinthewater @ 17/1 (3/1 & 7/2 : Hills & SkyBet)
Sir Geoffrey / Akfar @ 16.88/1 (9/2 & 9/4 : Bet365, Ladbrokes & Stan James)
Sir Geoffrey / Welliesinthewater @ 23.75/1 (9/2 & 7/2 : Bet365, Ladbrokes & Stan James)


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