Double Dutch, 9th February 2016

Haines was a little unlucky in running at Wolverhampton yesterday, being denied a clear run on a couple of occasions and being forced to switch out/in in the closing stages, ultimately leading to a fair narrow failure to deny a big market drift from an advised 7/2 out to a value-laden 15/2 at the off.

The fact he only went down by a length and a quarter was made all the more painful, I suppose, when So Satisfied absoluitely romped hom at Musselburgh 50 minutes later, winning by 13 lengths untroubled.

All of which meant we fell just short of what would have been an excellent 35.8/1 double which have made a massive difference to our bottom line, but in a sport where a nose is a winning margin, getting close is never close enough!

Monday’s results were as follows:

Haines : 2nd at 15/2 (adv 7/2)
Paddy’s Motorbike : 6th at 9/4 (adv 3/1)
So Satisfied : WON at 5/2 (adv 10/3)
Lady Clitico : 8th at 5/1 (adv 7/2)

Results to date:
799 winning selections from 2878 = 27.76%
247 winning bets in 745 days = 33.15%

Stakes: 1489.00pts
Returns: 1556.53pts
P/L : +67.53pts (+4.53% ROI)

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Tuesday’s Selections…

3.35 Market Rasen :

Six are due to go to post here and I’d be surprised if the winner came from outside the top half of the market, leaving me to discard just one. So, the one I’ll leave is Spencer Lea, who on paper at least, will be entitled to be in need of a run after 704 days off the track, which leads us to…

Petrou, second only to the very promising Ma du Fou over the minimum trip last time out and whose breeding suggests the extra 5f today would be more to his liking and in fairness, despite going down by 10 lengths, he had the rest of the 8 runner field really strung out behind him. Jockey Kielan Woods is riding well and trainer Ben Case does well with handicap debutants, particularly hurdlers, so a win at 9/4 BOG wouldn’t be too much of a surprise….

…assuming he can see off the 5yr old mare Milly Baloo, who receives 10lbs from the above today. A course and distance win by 6 lengths on soft ground on Boxing Day was followed up by a runner-up finish last time out. That was also here at Market Rasen, so she clearly likes it here, but she was outpaced late on over a shorter trip and beaten by just over two lengths, but well clear of the others.

The step back up in trip and the booking of Brian Hughes are both bonuses for me and a bet on Milly Baloo at 3/1 BOG might not be a bad move.

3.50 Southwell :

There wasn’t much between Sir Billy Wright and Showtime Star last time out, as they finished just three quarters of a length apart in 2nd and 3rd places here over 5f a fortnight ago. Both now step up in trip to 6f, but drop down two classes and they should be the first two home (fingers crossed!)

Showtime Star is better off at the weights today and offers more value at 4/1 BOG and having won 3 of his previous 4 attempts at track and trip (plus a runner-up finish!), he’s my marginal preference today.

That said, Sir Billy Wright has the benefit of the 5lb claim from rising star Josephine Gordon (who I’ve mentioned more than once of late!), but I do have concerns about him over 6f on the A/W. He’ll certainly give his all, but his best form is over 5f and also on soft turf, but the main selection aside, he looks the best on offer here at 5/2 BOG (a little short in my opinion).

4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles as follows…

Petrou / Sir Billy Wright @ 10.38/1 (9/4 & 5/2 : BetVictor, Betway, Hills & Racebets)
Petrou / Showtime Star @ 15.25/1 (9/4 & 4/1 : Coral & Ladbrokes)
Milly Baloo / Sir Billy Wright @ 13/1 (3/1 & 5/2 : BetVictor & Hills)
Milly Baloo / Showtime Star @ 19/1 (3/1 & 4/1 : Coral & Stan James)


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