Double Dutch, 10th February 2016

A second, two thirds and a fourth place was the end result from a day that didn’t quite go to plan yesterday.

I’d narrowed the first race down to three runners (mind you, only 5 ran, so it wasn’t that difficult!) and they were the first threee home, but with me thinking Spencer Lea would need the run after 704 days off the track, that opened the door to Sod’s Law and you can guess the rest! Milly Baloo was challenging him at the the last, she made a mistake and that cost her the race, going down by 3.75 lengths with Petrou a further 21L back in third.

Then 15 minutes later, our two were beaten by 1.5 and 2.5 lengths into third and fourth places, after both ran wide and were unable to make up condeded ground to the bottom weighted pair, rounding off a dismal day for DD.

Tuesday’s results were as follows:

Milly Baloo : 2nd at 11/4 (adv 3/1)
Petrou : 3rd at 2/1 (adv 9/4)
Sir Billy Wright : 3rd at 9/4 (adv 5/2)
Showtime Star : 4th at 7/2 (adv 4/1)

Results to date:
799 winning selections from 2882 = 27.72%
247 winning bets in 746 days = 33.11%

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Stakes: 1491.00pts
Returns: 1556.53pts
P/L : +65.53pts (+4.40% ROI)

Wednesday’s Selections…

4.55 Kempton :

Class 7 sprints are usually desperate affairs for younger horses not good enough to step up or older horses on the way down and it’s an older type that I expect to win this, as Lizzys Dream will aim to repeat a win in a similar standard of contest here two weeks ago. Danny Tudhope rides this track well and is in good touch and produced this horse at exactly the right time in a strongly run contest last time out. A similar performance puts them right in the mix at 5/2 BOG

…where I expect they’ll face company/competition from Spray Tan, who really should have won at Chelmsford last time out in a similar contest to this one, when she hung badly tight in the final half furlong, allowing the re-opposing Red Flute to beat her by a nose. She’s much better off with that rival at the weights today and with her jockey’s claim taken into account is actually off a lower mark than her last run and if she can stay a little straighter, stands every chance at 100/30 BOG here.

5.55 Kempton :

Princess Cookie hardly set the world on fire on debut when fading late on over 7f at Wolverhampton, but the drop back to this trip for her only other run proved successful, as she beat her six rivals by 2.5 lengths and more at Chelmsford almost three weeks ago, beating a 70-rated runner-up in the process.

She goes off 73 herself today, but with Danny Brock taking 3lbs off, that should be within her capabilities here. Danny is 4/11 (36.4% SR) for this yard on this track and with the yard faring well on days with only one runner, Princess Cookie is worth a look at around the 4/1 BOG mark.

I also think Rosealee should go well here this evening, slightly eased in the weights and down in both class and trip to race in this one. She has already won over this minimum trip, when landing a course and distance success on debut and now getting a second crack at track/trip, she’s also worthy of consideration at around 4/1 BOG.

4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles as follows…

Lizzys Dream / Princess Cookie @ 15.25/1 (9/4 & 4/1 : Bet365 & Ladbrokes)
Lizzys Dream / Rosealee @ 15.25/1 (9/4 & 4/1 : Betbright)
Spray Tan / Princess Cookie @ 20.67/1 (10/3 & 4/1 : Bet365 & Ladbrokes)
Spray Tan / Rosealee @ 20.67/1 (10/3 & 4/1 : Betbright)


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