Thursday’s Result :
6.10 Chelmsford : Bosham @ 5/1 BOG WON at 6/1 (Made all, travelled well throughout, hard driven when challenged inside final furlong, stayed on well)
Friday’s runner goes in the…
Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.
Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.
Poetic Choice @ 5/1 BOG
We’ll wait for the last race on Friday, to get involved with a trainer and jockey who might be under your radar currently. Keith Clarke is the trainer and, 92 runs into his career, he’s notched five wins and nine second places. Fairly unspectacular stuff, but four of those five wins have come here at Dundalk, a reasonably healthy 14% strike rate, but only worth a loss of £6.92 to a £1 level stake.
Enter Robbie Downey, an apprentice jockey who has 54 wins from 509 rides, a perfectly respectable 11% hit rate. Exactly half of those 54 wins have come on the beach here, from 206 rides, at 13%. That, too, has been loss-making as a strategy, to the tune of 18.01 units.
But when the pair have combined the picture has been a good bit rosier. They’ve teamed up on 16 occasions, winning four times and being in the first three nine times, for a small profit.
Looking at the partnership only at Dundalk, Downey and Clarke are four from twelve (33%), and all of those nine placed efforts have come here (75%). That was worth £9.08 of win profit or £16.75 for a £1 e/w level stakes.
Specifically with Poetic Choice, our duo have yet to hit the board. However, they’ve gone mightily close twice from four attempts in a form string which reads 5232. The brace of silvers were both by a neck, most recently when nutted on the line off today’s mark three weeks ago.
The son of Byron likes to race handily or on the speed, and he’ll have every chance of this from the inside draw. It’s a competitive race, but Poetic Choice is well suited by the race conditions; looks likely to have the run of it; and comes from a team in fine form at the track.
It’s tempting to suggest splitting stakes win and place, but we’ll go all in for a one point win bet at the current 5/1 BOG with bet365 and Boyle.
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