Stat of the Day, 13th February 2016

Friday’s Result :

9.00 Dundalk: Poetic Choice @ 5/1 BOG 5th at 5/1 (Dwelt, soon pushed along and led, headed after 3f, ridden in 3rd on inner 2f out, soon no impression)

Saturday’s runner goes in the…

3.50 Warwick :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

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Taquin De Seuil @ 7/2 BOG

Why?

Taking a bit of a chance here, for two reasons. Firstly, the selection hasn’t run for a year; and secondly he hasn’t shown top form since November 2014. Actually, third, he’s likely revving up for Cheltenham for a trainer who can leave a bit to work with.

Despite all that, Taquin De Seuil (TDS hereafter!) has a lot in his favour based on form.

Heavy ground: TDS is four from four on heavy, including a Grade 1 Hurdle and two Grade 2 races.

Distance: TDS is three from three at two and a half miles, including a Grade 2 Hurdle and the Grade 1 JLT Novices’ Chase at the 2014 Cheltenham Festival.

He clearly wasn’t right in the second half of last season and, if trainer, Jonjo O’Neill, has been able to nurse whatever was ailing TDS, he’s absolutely chucked in for this Class 2 handicap chase.

Mostly, this pick is about the ground: horses running in handicap chases that have won twice or more on heavy ground, and have an overall record of 66% or better on heavy, have won 60 of 320 races since 2003, for a profit of 102.08 points at SP.

Taquin de Seuil is currently a 7/2 chance, and the market may prove a good guide to his change. In the absence of any early sentiment either way, I’ll take my chances with a one point win bet at 7/2 BOG with either Paddy or BetVictor.

Alternatively, click below to check with your preferred bookie…

…click here for the betting on the 3.50 Warwick

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today’s racecard…

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