Double Dutch, 13th February 2016

We had a nice price bump on Part A of our two-parter on Friday as Josses Hill drifted out 37.5%. Sadly it was to no avail, after the very well backed Fairy Foxglove completely fluffed the start before meeting trouble in running, eventually staying on into third. No good. We’ll try again on what will be our 750th Double Dutch.

Friday’s results were as follows:

Josses Hill : WON at 11/8 (adv Evs)
Aso : 3rd at 7/2 (adv 4/1)
Fairy Foxglove : 3rd at 5/4 (adv 2/1)
Fuel Injection : 9th at 8/1 (adv 12/1)

Results to date:
802 winning selections from 2894 = 27.71%
248 winning bets in 749 days = 33.11%

Stakes: 1497.00pts
Returns: 1570.03pts
P/L : +73.03pts (+4.88% ROI)

And Saturday’s Selections…

Your first 30 days for just £1

1.25 Lingfield :

A trappy little race with no pace, but there’s a lot to like about the chance of Alshan Fajer. Ignoring a run at Kempton two starts back, this fellow is 1121 here on the balance of his last five runs. Up just three pounds for a gutsy win in higher class last time, he may adopt the hare role here, and he’s proven pretty hard to pass once getting to the front in the recent past.

If one does go by him, it might be Gaelic Silver. He’s a bit of a standing dish at Lingers, winning four of his 13 races on the sand here. Those victories, and indeed all 13 races, were at shorter trips – a mile or ten furlongs – but he might just get away with the additional quarter mile if it proves to be the tactical affair it looks on paper. He’s dropped a couple of pounds to within hailing distance of his last winning mark and it won’t be too long before he’s prevailing once more, if not today.

Kings Bayonet has been quite well backed but finds it hard to win and might prefer a faster run contest.

2.15 Gowran Park :

A four horse race that is essentially a three way go given the presence of a 150/1 shot. Smashing is the favourite and rightly so in my book. Trained by the excellent Henry de Bromhead, he’s on an upward curve and comes here in winning form. Indeed, he’s on a mission for the hat-trick having snapped up a brace of lower grade chases, the latter a Listed affair.

Four from six on heavy, two from three at the track and four from four in small fields, he’ll probably aim to lead all the way.

If he falters, it’s between Ballycasey and Morning Assembly, both of whom were good horses in their time but both come here with something to prove. The latter was coming back after almost two years off the track when a close second to Bridgets Pet a fortnight ago, and the proximity of this race to that smacks of ‘bounce’ – when a horse under-performs second time after a long layoff having run well on reappearance.

Even if I’m wrong about that, Ballycasey should have a slight class edge. He actually ran better than a finishing position of 9th implies in the Thyestes Chase last time, being right in the mix until stamina gave way. That’s no surprise considering he was tackling five furlongs further than this, his optimal trip (3 from 4 at 2m4f, and five of his six career wins have come within a quarter mile of this range).

That was his first run of the season and Ruby, who could have gone to Britain for some choice rides, stays home for this lad and Sempre Medici later.

4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles as follows…

Alshan Fajer / Smashing @ 9/1 (3/1 & 6/4 : bet365)
Alshan Fajer / Ballycasey @ 12/1 (3/1 & 9/4 : bet365)
Gaelic Silver / Smashing @ 10.25/1 (7/2 & 6/4 : bet365)
Gaelic Silver/ Ballycasey @ 15.25/1 (4/1 & 9/4 : betway (14/1 with four firms, 13.63/1 bet365)


Your first 30 days for just £1
0 replies

Leave a Reply

Want to join the discussion?
Feel free to contribute!

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *