Double Dutch, 16th February 2016

Winners at 8/11 and 5/6 that combine for doubles at 2.17/1 aren’t going to make us rich or even keep our heads above water, but taking the early priced with a hope/view to them drifting is a different story, as Matt took 6/5 and 5/4 at BOG odds for a 3.95/1 win that added more profit to the bottom line.

Unfortunately there was no drift, but we still made 24% on the day from a pretty safe bet on a terrible day’s racing. The beauty of BOG is that we knew we’d make profit with two winners and the returns could only have got bigger with market changes. Both our other runners were placed fourth and after yesterday’s win, we now seek a 250th winning double in just our 752nd attempt.

Monday’s results were as follows:

Yes I Did : WON at 8/11 (adv 6/5)
Miss Gotaway : 4th at 9/2 (adv 9/2)
Beauly : WON at 5/6 (adv 5/4)
Asafoetida : 4th at 7/2 (adv 4/1)

Results to date:
805 winning selections from 2902 = 27.74%
249 winning bets in 751 days = 33.16%

Your first 30 days for just £1

Stakes: 1501.00pts
Returns: 1572.51pts
P/L : +71.51pts (+4.76% ROI)

And to Tuesday’s Selections…

2.00 Southwell :

I liked the look of Your Lucky Day for this one, but his defection might have have left the door open for Hab Reeh to take advantage and after some decent efforts this year without succedding, it might just well be his day in what looks a poor encounter. It’s almost two years since he last won and that was off a mark of 50 and with his rating now dropped to 52 despite a decent effort in third last time out (only beaten by 2.25 lengths), this could be the best chance he’s had in a long time. Not one to hang your hat on, but a definite possible at 5/2 BOG.

The 9/2 BOG First Excel, on the other hand, is far from exposed and makes only his second handicap start after being beaten by 6 lengths last time out. Roy Bowring’s charge has been eased 5lbs for that defeat and with Aaron Jones taking another 5lbs off him, he could be quite leniently treated at the weights today. He showe some promise in maidens and although this is a first crack at Fibresand, his dam, Exceedingly Good, was a winner here in the past and made the frame in four of eight starts on this track.

5.10 Ayr :

Undisputed looks the most likely here at around 2/1 BOG, having shown some promise in defeat on her debut at Navan back in November. She may have been well beaten in the end that day, but there’s a gulf in class from that Listed event and this lowly Class 6 mares contest. Stuart Crawford does well with his winter raiders to the UK, has a great record with his unexposed bumper runners and when he has Steven Crawford in the saddle at this venue, you always get a run for your money.

This is also a weaker race than the one in which Al Reesha was beaten by just less than 7 lengths last time out. The extra distance should help this daughter of Kayf Tara here too. Team Skelton are in good nick and it’s interesting to see them send this one on a such a long trip when opportunites closer to home will surely pop up in the coming days. If they think this one is there for the taking, you can be sure they’ll be going for it at 5/2 BOG.

4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles as follows…

Hab Reeh  / Undisputed @ 9.50/1 (5/2 & 2/1 : generally)
Hab Reeh / Al Reesha @ 10.38/1 (5/2 & 9/4 : generally)
First Excel / Undisputed @ 15.50/1 (9/2 & 2/1 : Bet365, Betfair, Betway)
First Excel / Al Reesha @ 18.25/1 (9/2 & 5/2 : Paddy Power)


Your first 30 days for just £1
0 replies

Leave a Reply

Want to join the discussion?
Feel free to contribute!

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *