Stat of the Day, 17th February 2016

Tuesday’s Result :

4.50 Southwell : Kelly’s Finest @ 8/1 BOG non-runner (Vets report quotes a pulled muscle)

Wednesday’s runner goes in the…

5.20 Kempton:

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

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Who?

Star Links @ 4/1 BOG

Why?

This 10 yr old gelding snapped a 2 year (exactly) and 19 race losing run when winning over course and distance last out, just a week ago and although raised 6lbs for that win, is actually a pound better off here, thanks to his jockey’s 7lb claim in this apprentices handicap.

As long-term readers will recall, I do like to back horses who who won last time out after a string of defeats and after not even making the frame in those 19 defeats, last week’s win for Star Links certainly caught my attention, as he became one of my Kempton back to form horses. I used to call this micro-system “Strike Whilst the Iron is Hot”, because I look for horses who are quickly turned back out after a win that was preceded by some pretty poor form.

So, here at Kempton, I look for handicappers who won on the A/W last time out inside the past 30 days. They must have failed to make the frame in at least 3 consecutive races prior to the win and those are the basic rules for Kempton.

Such horses have won 125 of 577 (21.7% SR) follow-up attempts for level stakes profits of 149.8pts at an ROI of 26% since the start of 2008, so it’s a long-term success. In terms of today’s race conditions / selection, those 577 runners can be analysed as follows…

  • Those allotted weights of 8-9 to 10-0 are 120/529 (22.7% SR) for 169.9pts (+32.1% ROI)
  • Males are 104/436 (23.9% SR) for 157pts (+36% ROI)
  • Those last seen 6 to 20 days ago are 96/406 (23.7% SR) for 151.3pts (37.3% ROI)
  • Those priced at 5/2 to 11/1 are 81/388 (20.9% SR) for 178.2pts (+45.9% ROI)
  • Those rated (OR) 54 to 72 are 90/348 (25.9% SR) for 162pts (+46.6% ROI)
  • Class 6/7 runners are 74/293 (25.3% SR) for 108.1pts (+36.9% ROI)

And if you wanted to combine the above 6 factors into a single microsystem… Class 4 to 7 males allotted 8-09 to 10-00, priced at 5/4 to 10/1, rated 80 and below some 6 to 20 days after their recent win are 75/250 (30% SR) for 181.1pts (+72.5% ROI).

And today’s play is…a 1pt win bet on Star Links at 4/1 BOG with either 10Bet or BetVictor (Ladbrokes actually offer 9/2, but won’t go BOG until the morning). To see the fuller picture…

…click here for the betting on the 5.20 Kempton

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today’s racecard…

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