Double Dutch, 17th February 2016

I said yesterday that we were hoping for our 250th winning double at a rate of almost 1-in-3 and it duly arrived on a day where almost everything went our way.

Both our longer priced picks won, one even very obligingly drifted by half a point and with us also having the runner-up in race 2, we got the added bonus of a small 3.73/1 forecast, only Hab Reeh’s third place finish denied us a rare DD full house.

Nevertheless, a 19.63/1 win on the back of Monday’s success puts the week in a good position and now I hope to kick on from here…

Tuesday’s results were as follows:

First Excel : WON at 4/1 (adv 9/2)
Hab Reeh : 3rd at 4/1 (adv 5/2)
Al Reesha : WON at 11/4 (adv 9/4)
Undisputed : 2nd at 4/6 (adv 2/1)
The forecast paid £4.73 here

Results to date:
807 winning selections from 2906 = 27.77%
250 winning bets in 752 days = 33.24%

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Stakes: 1503.00pts
Returns: 1582.82pts
P/L : +79.82pts (+5.31% ROI)

And to Wednesday’s Selections…

3.00 Towcester :

Bebinn is raised 9lbs for winning at Plumpton last time out, but in fairness, she did canter home by some 29 lengths and if ridden out would probably have won by double that distance or more, leaving a 98 rated rival trailing in her wake. With that performance in mind, 9lbs might actually be lenient. The trip is no issue, she clearly stays further than this and she gets ground this soft and worse witrhout any issues and despite the rise in weight, she could very well complete a 30-day hat-trick here at 10/3 BOG.

The one most likely to give her a run for her money is the LTO winner Badger Wood, who scored at Taunton on his chase debut 25 days ago, so there could very well be more to come from this one. He stayed on well to win over 2m7f on heavy ground that day and although the assessor hasn’t been too easy on him with an 8lb rise, I’d expect an even better show today. He does have an extra 330yds to run, but the ground is slightly better here and if showing any form of natural/expected progression, could be a real danger at 4/1 BOG.

3.45 Lingfield :

Jim Crowley and Amanda Perrett do well together here and when Jim rode Arch Villain for the horse’s last four runs of a Class 2 campaign in 2013/14, they finished 1412 together. The horse was then off the track for 637 days, before returning here to Lingfield to win again under Jim Crowley just over a month ago. Having had the run and showing a liking for both track and trip, you’d not be getting rich from backing this one, but at 2/1 BOG looks ideal if we’ve survived race 1!

But, just in case, we’ll take a second option in the shape of the 3/1 BOG Notarised, who is a better prospect than his 15th of 19 showing on his only previous run beyond 1m6f. Closer inspection shows that run was in the highly competitive Northumberland Plate 8 months ago, but the placing doesn’t tell the whole story. He was far from disgraced and led until the approaches to the final furlong, before eventually going down by just over 9 lengths. This is a slightly shorter trip and he’s unexposed on the A/W (just 1 previous effort here last April) and could be an ideal back-up bet.

4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles as follows…

Bebinn / Arch Villain @ 12/1 (10/3 & 2/1 : BetVictor & Coral)
Bebinn / Notarised @ 15.25/1 (10/3 & 11/4 : BetVictor & Ladbrokes)
Badger Wood / Arch Villain @ 14/1 (4/1 & 2/1 : BetVictor)
Badger Wood / Notarised @ 18.75/1 (4/1 & 11/4 : Bet365, BetVictor & Ladbrokes)


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