Double Dutch, 18th February 2016

We were denied a third win of the week yesterday, as both of our selections at Towcester ended up well beaten in the end, with the best we could manage being the 4th place finish from a drifting (10/3 to 13/2!) Bebinn, but he was a good 32 lengths away from the winner, meaning the double was well gone!

Some personal pride was salvaged later at Lingfield in the shape of Arch Villain, who I’d backed elsewhere as a sinlge at 2/1 and he was well backed into 5/4 at the off, but only just got up on the line to win by a head with our other pick a further 2 places back in third.

Wednesday’s results were as follows:

Bebinn : 4th at 13/2 (adv 10/3)
Badger Wood : PU at 3/1 (adv 4/1)
Arch Villain : WON at 5/4 (adv 2/1)
Notarised : 3rd at 7/2 (adv 11/4)

Results to date:
808 winning selections from 2910 = 27.77%
250 winning bets in 753 days = 33.20%

Stakes: 1505.00pts
Returns: 1582.82pts
P/L : +77.82pts (+5.17% ROI)

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And to Thursday’s Selections…

3.45 Clonmel :

Altiepix has made the frame four times from his six runs over the last year, winning twice. He has made a good transition to the bigger obstacles and although a winner over 3m two starts ago (all 3 chase runs have been at 3m or longer), he’s interestingly dropped back a half mile today. Mind you, he has won at both 2m and 2m 6.5f in the past and over today’s trip, he has solid (233) form over hurdles.

Off a mark of 117, he’s still 5lbs lower than his hurdling mark and with yard and jockey in good nick and both having good records here at Clonmel, a win for Altiepix at 11/4 BOG wouldn’t exactly be too much of a surprise, assuming that he sees off the likely challenge from easy LTO heavy ground winner Mr Eko, who now steps back up in trip by 2f after coasting home by 12 lengths at Thurles three weeks ago.

He was eased down as his bandages came loose, so could and should probably have won by much further and as a result, a 7lb penalty might actually look lenient for a horse who gets this trip readily (a former course and distance winner here over fences) and absolutely loves heavy ground. At the age of 11, time is probably not on Mr Eko‘s side, but I think there could be at least one more win in him and if it’s today at 7/2 BOG or better, that would be just ideal for us!

7.10 Chelmsford :

Over the last four months, the 5/2 BOG Supersta has raced 8 times on the A/W, winning five times and going down by just a head in another. He’s three from five over course and distance, he runs well in the hood, field size looks ideal and he’s 2/4 in this grade. Regular jockey Andrew Mullen has an able replacement in Jim Crowley and the only negative I have about this one is the double penalty being carried…

…which might just open the door to the 3/1 BOG fellow hat-trick seeker Bold Prediction, who carries 4lbs less than the main pick here. He’s also had the benefit of a 5 week rest since landing back to back wins firstly at Lingfield and then here over course and distance last time out. He’s only up 3lbs for that last win and that might not be enough to stop him here today. Either way I expect a closely run affair.

4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles as follows…

Altiepix / Supersta @ 12.13/1 (11/4 & 5/2 : generally)
Altiepix / Bold Prediction @ 14/1 (11/4 & 3/1 : generally)
Mr Eko / Supersta @ 16.50/1 (4/1 & 5/2 : Betfair Sports)
Mr Eko / Bold Prediction @ 19/1 (4/1 & 3/1 : Betfair Sports)


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