Stat of the Day, 20th February 2016

Friday’s Result :

2.20 Lingfield : Chelwood Gate @ 7/2 BOG 3rd at 9/4 (Held up in rear, not clear run over 1f out, soon switched left, headway when not clear run inside final furlong, kept on, went 3rd close home, having been given far too much to do!)

Saturday’s runner goes in the…

2.40 Haydock:

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

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Who?

Cloudy Too @ 11/2 BOG

Why?

This horse was a 15 length winner in a higher grade last time out and looks well set to be the latest heavy ground winner for Sue Smith, whose horses are 60/338 (17.8% SR) for 89.7pts (+26.5% ROI) on heavy ground since the start of 2008 and in respect of ths contest, those 338 mudlarks are…

  • 46/239 (19.3% SR) for 85.3pts (+35.7% ROI) in handicaps
  • 44/232 (19% SR) for 54.4pts (+23.4% ROI) when running 11 to 45 days since their last outing
  • 43/195 (22.1% SR) for 104.6pts (+53.6% ROI) over fences
  • 16/79 (20.3% SR) for 66.8pts (+84.6% ROI) at the ages of 9 & 10
  • 15/55 (27.3% SR) for 15.9pts (+28.9% ROI) from LTO winners
  • 3/6 (50% SR) for 16.7pts (+278.2% ROI) from those who won by 15 to 30 lengths last time out.

And since the start of 2009, Sue Smith’s heavy ground handicap chasers running 6 to 60 days after their last run are 28/132 (21.2% SR) for 66pts profit at an ROI of 50%, of which…

  • 8-12 yr olds are 24/94 (25.5% SR) for 86.6pts (+92.1% ROI)
  • LTO winners are 7/25 (28% SR) for 24.7pts (+98.8% ROI)
  • LTO winners by 5 to 30 lengths are 4/10 (40% SR) for 18.92pts (+189.2% ROI)

Had you backed Cloudy Too in each of 32 starts to date, you’d have found yourself with 8 winning bets (25% SR) and level stakes profits of 14.3pts at an ROI of 44.6% and a quick look at today’s race conditions has given me numerous grounds for optimism; here are just 11 of those reasons!

  • he is 6/28 (21.4% SR) for 6.27pts (+22.4% ROI) going left handed
  • in fields of 5 to 12 runners, he is 8/25 (32% SR) for 21.3pts (+85.2% ROI)
  • he has won 6 of 22 chases (27.3% SR) for 11.84pts (+53.8% ROI) profit
  • in handicap races, he is 5/20 (25% SR) for 6.24pts (+31.2% ROI)
  • when sent off at 7/1 or shorter, he is 8/14 (57.1% SR) for 32.3pts (+230.7% ROI)
  • this is a good time to catch him, as he has 5 wins from 14 runs (35.7% SR) in the months of January to March, producing profits of 16.52pts (+118% ROI)
  • in handicap chases, his record stands at 4 wins from 14 (28.6% SR) for 7.82pts profit at an ROI of 55.9%
  • here at Haydock, he is 2 from 6 (33.33% SR) for 6.74pts (+112.25% ROI)
  • and in chases here, that record becomes 2 from 5 (40% SR) for 7.74pts (+154.7% ROI)
  • on heavy ground, he has 3 wins from 4 (75% SR) for 15.4pts (+384.9% ROI) and never out of the first three home with three of those four races being here at Haydock
  • he has already won two of four Grade 2/3 races for profits of 7.22pts (+180.5% ROI)

And today’s play is…a 1pt win bet on Cloudy Too at 11/2 BOG with Hills, who are best priced at present (7.00pm), whilst there’s plenty of 5/1 BOG to be had elsewhere. To see if that’s still the case…

…click here for the betting on the 2.40 Haydock

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today’s racecard…

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