Stat of the Day, 23rd February 2016

Monday’s Result :

3.05 Carlisle : Alto des Mottes @ 3/1 BOG PU at 3/1 (Tracked leaders, mistake 2nd, lost place 9th, soon behind, weakened 4 out (usual 5 out), tailed off when pulled up before last)

Tuesday’s runner goes in the…

4.35 Wolverhampton:

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

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Gorokai @ 5/1 BOG


This 3 yr old gelding has finished 113 in his last three runs, having won at Class 5 and then Class 4 level, before a narrow defeat at Class 3 last time out. He now drops back down in class to return to Wolverhampton, where his only previous visit resulted in a runner-up finish over course and distance on his A/W debut.

He hasn’t finished outside the top 3 in his four starts on the A/W to date (2113) with a 211 record at today’s trip and he’s 1 from 1 in this grade.

In addition to that, his trainer (David Simcock) and his jockey (Jamie Spencer) have built up a decent partnership here at Wolverhampton, winning 12 of 38 races (31.6% SR) for profits of 8.26pts (+21.7% ROI) since the start of 2010. Closer analysis of those 38 runners threw up the following profitable angles, all of which are at play here…

  • male runners are 11/35 (31.4% SR) for 9.6pts (+27.4% ROI)
  • those sent off at 5/1 and shorter are 12/28 (42.9% SR) for 18.3pts (+65.2% ROI)
  • handicappers are 7/25 (28% SR) for 7.56pts (+30.3% ROI)
  • those finishing in the first three LTO are 10/17 (52.6% SR) for 21.84pts (+114.9% ROI)
  • those last seen 1 to 15 days ago are 4/8 (50% SR) for 3.81pts (+47.6% ROI)

And from that, we see that male handicappers at 5/1 and shorter are 7/17  (41.2% SR) for 15.6pts (+91.6% ROI), of which those in the top 3 LTO are 6/11 (54.5% SR) for 17.6pts (+160.2% ROI) and those last seen 1-15 days ago are 3/5 (60% SR) for 5.2pts (+104% ROI)

Male handicappers at 5/1 and shorter, in the top 3 LTO, 1-15 DSLR = 2/4 (50% SR) for 2.26pts (+56.4% ROI)

And today’s play is…a 1pt win bet on Gorokai at 5/1 BOG with either Bet365 , who are best priced at present (5.45pm), whilst there’s plenty of 9/2 BOG on offer elsewhere, so why not…

…click here for the betting on the 4.35 Wolverhampton

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Here is today’s racecard…

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