Double Dutch, 24th February 2016

Awful, just awful. That’s my “expert summary” of yesterday’s performance.

When a third place runner, beaten by almost a dozen lengths is the best you can muster, you know you’ve had a poor day! That was where Decade Player finished at Taunton, in a race where our other runner was backed in to 6/4 at the off and only made it to the second fence, where he made a hash of it and unseated his rider.

Mind you, the game was already up after our Wetherby runners were 4th and 11th of 12 runners. Copt Hill fared “best”, by only losing by almost 20 lengths with Zayfire Aramis a further 7 places and 23 lengths on what transpired to be a very poor day at the office for me.

Tuesday’s results were as follows:

Copt Hill : 4th at 11/4 (adv 7/2)
Zayfire Aramis : 11th at 7/2 (adv 4/1)
Decade Player : 3rd at 3/1 (adv 5/2)
The Wealerdealer : UR at 6/4 (adv 7/4)

Results to date:
811 winning selections from 2930 = 27.68%
250 winning bets in 758 days = 32.98%

Stakes: 1515.00pts
Returns: 1582.82pts
P/L : +67.82pts (+4.48% ROI)

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And to Wednesday’s Selections…

3.20 Lingfield :

When I was looking for some stat angles from today’s cards, I noticed that Jim Crowley was riding Flighty Filia here for Amanda Perret and they’ve had some success together of late, so I dug a bit further and found that if you backed this combo here at Lingfield since the start of 2008, you’d have had 26 winners from 118 bets (22% SR) and 69.1pts profit (+58.6% ROI). The horse herself looks dangerously well weighted receiving a 6lbs allowance and her best run came over track and trip two starts ago.

She was only beaten by a head that day and had Coorg three parts of a lengths further back. Coorg had gone into that race off the back of a win, but finished third and has since won each of his three starts, taking his recent form to 13111, suggesting Flighty Filia has some potential and could very well be a better prospect than her current 11/2 BOG pricetag might suggest!

The problem she has, though, is that she has always managed to find at least one (or more!) to beat her in each of her 9 starts to date, and the presence of the 13/8 BOG Ruler of the Nile suggests that might well be the case again today. The latter has really stepped up since being sent out on these longer trips and was third at Wolverhampton, beaten by less than a length over 16.5f and then second here over course and distance, a neck behind a runner that has since completed a hat-trick.

Ruler of the Nile was then a winner next/last time out when getting home by a full seven lengtrhs over Kemnpton’s 2 miles, despite being eased right down from a fair way out. He’s obviously penalised for that effort, but he could well have won by 20/30/40 lengths etc, had he/his team wanted to, so his weight/true ability is difficult to assess and as such, he’s the one to beat.

4.25 Lingfield :

In a race that shouldn’t take too much winning, Secret Sinner‘s fourth place finish at Kempton last time out looks to be the best piece of recent form on offer and a repeat performance should probably be enough here. She weakened late on and didn’t see the 1m4f out that day, so the drop back in trip should also be a bonus and whilst her yard aren’t exactly firing in the winners just yet, their runners do seem to be running well and are usually involved in the business end of races.

In fact, 42% of Jamie Osborne’s runners have made the frame over the last two months, which is pretty decent and if we can get Secret Sinner to be the latest, then she will have every chance of taking this at 3/1 BOG.

In opposition, we have Faster Company, who has shown some promise since stepping up in trip this year. He did hang late on last time out and so has been fitted with blinkers today in a bid to keep him more controlled and in Aaron Jones, we have a jockey with 3 wins and 4 other top 3 finishes from just 13 rides over the last month and has made the frame in 5 of his 6 Lingfield rides this year. If you think horse and rider can improve upon recent efforts, there’s plenty of 5/2 BOG available for Faster Company.

4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles as follows…

Ruler of the Nile / Faster Company @ 8.19/1 (13/8 & 5/2 : Bet365)
Ruler of the Nile / Secret Sinner @ 9/1 (6/4 & 3/1 : Stan James)
Flighty Filia / Faster Company @ 21.75/1 (11/2 & 5/2 : Bet365 & BetVictor)
Flighty Filia / Secret Sinner @ 23/1 (5/1 & 3/1 : Stan James)


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