Double Dutch, 25th February 2016

On a poor day’s racing yesterday, I felt I’d identified two very winnable races at Lingfield, despite a lack of both depth and quality. And I was right in that respect, but the day turned into another of those frustrating encounters that have typified recent times for DD.

I liked Flighty Filia in the 3.20 race for a number of reasons and with the well-backed (5/6 from an already too short 13/8) favourite failing to see the race out successfully, she took full advantage late on getting up by half a length. We were on at 11/2, so we’d a great stake for race 2…

…where the tables were turned and our runner, long-time leader Secret Sinner was herself overhauled in the final furlong on her way to a 1.75 length defeat that denied us a juicy 38/1 payout that would have put a totally different complexion on the numbers below.

Wednesday’s results were as follows:

Flighty Filia : WON at 5/1 (adv 11/2)
Ruler of the Nile : 4th at 5/6 (adv 13/8)
Secret Sinner : 2nd at 5/1 (adv 3/1)
Faster Company : 6th at 6/4 (adv 5/2)

Results to date:
812 winning selections from 2934 = 27.68%
250 winning bets in 759 days = 32.94%

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Stakes: 1517.00pts
Returns: 1582.82pts
P/L : +65.82pts (+4.34% ROI)

And to Thursday’s Selections…

2.55 Sedgefield :

11 go to post here and I think it’s a 3-horse encounter in reality and assuming I don’t discard the wrong one, we should be fine! And although Rosquero was a winner last time out three weeks ago, he’s the one I’m omitting. Age isn’t on his side, he rarely puts two decent runs together, he’s up in weight and in all fairness, everytthing went his way last time out. (guaranteed to win now!)

So, that takes us to a pair of more consistent sorts, starting with the 7/2 BOG Oscar Oscar, who made ther frame in four of his last five hurdle races, before a switch to fences for the first time three weeks ago. He was by no means disgraced in going down by 4 lengths in third place over a trip far too short for him (very one paced in the final flourishes). The extra half mile should suit him more today, I’d have thought.

The runner-up that day (2 lengths ahead) was Discoverie (also 7/2 BOG), who also seemed to need further, but still impressed on what was also his own chasing debut. There wasn’t too much between the pair I’ve selected and that Discoverie is a couple of pounds worse off, I can see them being closely matched again today. It should also be added that they were both beaten by a proven reliable chaser last time out and I’d expect both to come on for the run today.

3.55 Huntingdon :

Vazaro Delafayette was an expensive purchase as an ex-Pointer and showed some promise  as chaser when tackling the larger obstacles for the first time last time out. He was running after a break of 441 days when finishing third here a fortnight ago. A drop in trip and the benefit of having had a run should stand this potential improver in good stead and with the Pipe / Scudamore combination having a 31% strike rate in handicaps here, a bet at 9/4 BOG could well pay dividends today.

That’s assuming he gets the better of the 5/2 BOG Hollow Blue Sky, who has made the frame in both chase starts at this venue (winning once), relisghes the soft ground and is back at a trip more suitable for him today. Just a pound higher than his last win, but racing 2 grades lower than that success, he really has to be feared/respected here today. he won this race in 2014 and showed signs of a return to form when a decent second at Doncaster LTO four weeks ago. Only 4 of his 11 rivals have reappeared since, but they have three wins and a place from those four starts!

4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles as follows…

Oscar Oscar / Vazaro Delafayette @ 13.63/1 (7/2 & 9/4 : Betway)
Oscar Oscar / Hollow Blue Sky @ 13.63 (7/2 & 9/4 : Betway)
Discoverie / Vazaro Delafayette @ 13.63/1 (7/2 & 9/4 : Racebets)
Discoverie / Hollow Blue Sky @ 14.75/1 (7/2 & 5/2 : Betfred & Totesport)


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