Stat of the Day, 2nd March 2016

Tuesday’s Result :

4.40 Lingfield : Ask The Guru @ 4/1 BOG 2nd at 7/2 (Tracked leaders in 4th, ridden inside final furlong, kept on to take 2nd towards finish)

Wednesday’s runner goes in the…

2.45 Wincanton:

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.


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Quite by Chance @ 11/4 BOG


This 7yr old gelding is in excellent form, finishing 112 in his last three outings and only narrowly (0.75 lengths) failed to compete his hat-trick last time out despite conceding 20lbs (inc a 5lb jockey claim) to the useful Anthony Honeyball runner As de Fer.

Quite by Chance might well only be 4 from 25 to date, but that doesn’t tell the whole story about a horse who is 4/15 in handicap chases with all four wins coming from 10 efforts going right handed and 4 from 10 is much better on the eye!

Of that 4 from 10 record, he is 3 from 6 (21P112) here at Wincanton, 3 from 5 in fields of 8/9 runners (3 from 3 here!), he’s 2 from 3 on soft ground and has one win and one runner-up finish over this track and trip, so conditions look perfect here for him.

His trainer, Colin Tizzard’s horses have won 4 of 13 (30.8% SR) in the last week, whilst his chasers are 5 from 12 (41.7% SR) over the past fortnight and it’s his chasers that interest me here, as since the start of 2015, they have won 7 of 21 (33.3% SR) races here at Wincanton, generating level stakes profits of 28.8pts at an ROI of 137.2% and whilst 21 runners (all male!) in 14 months is a fairly small sample size, it does throw up some interesting angles that are valid today…

  • handicappers are 7/20 (35% SR) for 29.8pts (+149% ROI)
  • those carrying 10-09 and more are 6/16 (37.5% SR) for 30.3pts (+189.5% ROI)
  • those rated (OR) 114 to 135 are 7/15 (46.7% SR) for 34.8pts (+232% ROI)
  • Class 3 runners are 6/13 (46.2% SR) for 33.3pts (+256.3% ROI)
  • On soft ground : 5/12 (41.7% SR) for 26.9pts (+224% ROI)
  • those priced at 4/1 and shorter are 5/12 (41.7% SR) for 10.15pts (+84.6% ROI)
  • those racing at 2m4f/2m4.5f are 4/11 (36.4% SR) for 13.28pts (+120.7% ROI)
  • 7 yr olds are 4/7 (57.1% SR) for 17.3pts (+246.9% ROI)
  • those ridden by Paddy Brennan are 2/4 (50% SR) for 2.82pts (+71.4% ROI)

And if 21 is a small sample, the secondary stat comes from an original dataset of a mere 3630 runners! As that’s how many times a Midnight Legend offspring has hit the track! Regular readers will know of my fondness of this sire, as backing his progeny produces profits.

If you’d backed every Midnight Legend runner since the start of 2008, you’d have celebrated 459 winners from 3202 bets at a strike rate better than 1-in-7 (14.33% SR).

A £20 wager on each runner returns overall profits of £12608, a 19.7% return on all stakes invested. From profitably blind backing over 3200 horses, there is clearly going be a whole host of angles I could (but won’t!) bring you, but suffice to say that since the start of 2009, Midnight Legend‘s handicap chasers are 143/810 (17.7% SR) for 389.8pts (+48.1% ROI), with the following data of particular relevance today…

  • Males are 115/623 (18.5% SR) for 321.4pts (+51.6% ROI)
  • 6-8 yr olds are 90/438 (20.6% SR) for 229.3pts (+52.4% ROI)
  • Class 3 runners are 37/244 (15.2% SR) for 115pts (+47.1% ROI)
  • On soft ground : 29/170 (17.1% SR) for 34.1pts (+20.1% ROI)
  • here at Wincanton : 10/41 (24.4% SR) for 11.7pts (+28.4% ROI)

So today’s play is…a 1pt win bet on Quite by Chance at 11/4 BOG with any one of the eight firms, who are currently (6.15pm) offering that price. To see what your preferred outlet is quoting, simply…

…click here for the betting on the 2.45 Wincanton

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!


Here is today’s racecard…

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