Stat of the Day, 3rd March 2016

Wednesday’s Result :

2.45 Wincanton : Quite by Chance @ 1/4 BOG 3rd at 11/4 (In touch, headway when mistake 9th, led 11th, headed after 4 out, outpaced when left 3rd 2 out)

Thursday’s runner goes in the…

4.25 Taunton:

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

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Tornado In Milan @ 7/2 BOG


This 10 yr old is 3 from 15 over hurdles, which is reasonable, if not spectacular, but looking at today’s conditions in relation to that 3/15 record and I see that Tornado In Milan is 2/8 here at Taunton and 2/8 on soft ground. He’s also 2/7 in a hood and 2 from 2 running 6 to 20 days after his last run. Also of note here is his 1 from 2 record over this trip, 1/2 over C&D and 1/2 under today’s jockey Conor Ring who claims 5lbs today.

So, we know the horse should be happy enough, what of the yard in general? Well, trainer Evan Williams’s hurdlers are 14/87 (16.1% SR) for 65.4pts (+75.32% ROI), from which…

  • those competing at 2m1f to 2m3.5f are 12/67 (17.9% SR) for 74pts (+110.4% ROI)
  • those racing 6 to 75 DSLR are 12/66 (18.2% SR) for 64.9pts (+98.3% ROI)
  • those with a mark of 110 to 130 are 10/32 (31.25% SR) for 73.2pts (+228.9% ROI)
  • and those carrying 11-06 to 11-12 are 7/20 (35% SR) for 25pts (+125% ROI)

As I said earlier, jockey Conor Ring claims 5lbs and Evan Williams’ horse have gone well in the past when partnered by such claimers. More specifically, since the start of 2008, at odds of 5/4 to 11/1, Evan’s NH handciappers ridden by a 5lb claimer are 27/154 (17.5% SR) for 44.7pts at a healthy enough ROI of 29%, but we won’t stop there! A closer inspection of those 154 runners shows that…

  • those who finished in the top 4 LTO are 20/89 (22.5% SR) for 45.1pts (+50.7% ROI)
  • hurdlers are 14/72 (19.4% SR) for 42.7pts (+59.3% ROI)
  • those rated 116 to 130 are 11/49 (22.5% SR) for 32.1pts (+65.5% ROI)
  • Class 3 runners are 11/49 (22.5% SR) for 30.2pts (+61.6% ROI)
  • those racing over trips of 2m1.5f to 2m4f are 16/29 (55.2% SR) for 112.4pts (+387.6% ROI)
  • on soft ground : 4/25 (16% SR) for 18.7pts (+74.8% ROI)
  • here at Taunton : 4/13 (30.8% SR) for 21.6pts (+166.1% ROI)

So today’s play is…a 1pt win bet on Tornado In Milan at 7/2 BOG, a price widely available, although Betway (non-BOG until 10.00am) are a standout 4/1. To see your preferred bookie’s prices, simply…

…click here for the betting on the 4.25 Taunton

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Here is today’s racecard…

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