Stat of the Day, 8th March 2016

Monday’s Result :

2.40 Lingfield : Bawden Rocks @ 11/4 BOG 2nd at 3/1 (Tracked leaders, went 2nd 3rd, led 6th, headed 3 out, stayed on same pace)

Tuesday’s runner goes in the…

4.10 Exeter:

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

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Renard @ 11/4 BOG


This 11 yr old gelding was a runner-up when last seen 11 days ago and should be competitive having had the recent effort and especially now eased 2lbs and dropped two classes to a grade where he is currently 2 from 2 and he comes to Exeter where his trainer Venetia Williams’ handicap chasers (all male!) are 4/14 (28.6% SR) for 26.5pts (+189.6% ROI) profit since the start of 2015.

Of those 14 ‘capper chasing males…

  • those running on soft/heavy are 3/12 for 19.1pts
  • class 4 runners are 2/5 for 20.4pts
  • Aidan Coleman has ridden 2 winners from 5 for 16.5pts
  • and at 2m3f/2m3.5f, they are 2 from 2 for 19.1pts

In addition to the above, Venetia’s handicap chasers dropping down in class are 39/231 (16.9% SR) for 12.3pts (+5.3% ROI) profit since the start of 2012, with the following angles prevalent here…

  • soft ground runners are 18/86 for 11.6pts
  • class 4 runners are 14/67 for 8.13pts
  • those priced at 5/4 to 7/2 are 20/53 for 13.5pts
  • those racing over 2m1f to 2m3.5f are 8/33 for 25.8pts
  • and here at Exeter, they are 2 from 10 for 15.4pts

Plus, Ms Williams’ handicap jumpers running after a string of 5 or more successive defeats and are now rated lower than their last jumps win have won 21 of 74 (28.4% SR) races for profits of 34.3pts (+46.3% ROI) when sent off in the 13/8 to 13/2 price range since the start of 2012. Of particular interest to me today, are the following facts…

  • males are 19/68 for 31.7pts
  • chasers are 17/62 for 19.4pts
  • soft ground runners are 12/39 for 27.8pts
  • class 4 runners are 10/36 for 13.5pts
  • those ridden by Aidan Coleman are 8/27 for 12.5pts
  • in races of 2m0.5f to 2,4.5f, they are 10/23 for 26pts
  • and here at Exeter, they are 1 from 2 for 4.33pts

So today’s play is…a 1pt win bet on Renard at 11/4 BOG, a price available with Betbright, BetVictor, Coral & Hills at 5.40pm, so to take your pick of the pack, simply…

…click here for the betting on the 4.10 Exeter

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Here is today’s racecard…

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