Wednesday’s Result :
2.40 Lingfield : Ballista @ 7/2 BOG 2nd at 6/4 (Led, hard driven when challenged over 1f out, headed inside final furlong, no extra towards finish)
Thursday’s runner goes in the…
Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.
Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.
Isaacstown Lad @ 3/1 BOG
Nicky Richards turns once again to his trusted lieutenant Brian Harding to ride this 9 yr old gelding in a heavy ground, 3m1f, Class 3, handicap hurdle where Isaacstown Lad will seek to improve upon a 3rd place finish last time out, 19 days ago in a higher grade than this.
This horse has won 4 of 13 hurdles contests to date, with the relevant highlights of those runs being…
- 4/11 at 2m6.5f to 3m2f, 4/10 under Brian Harding and 4/10 in handicap company
- 4/8 running for Nicky Richards and 4/6 at odds below 4/1
- 3/4 running 6-25 DSLR and 2 from 2 at this Class 3 level
The ground is set to be testing and since the start of 2011, Nicky Richards has had plenty of success in the mud with 34 heavy ground winners from 112 (30.4% SR) generating level stakes profits of 48.8pts at an impressive ROI of 43.6%. Those figures can be further examined, with this race firmly in mind, as follows…
- males are 33/103 for 53pts profit
- 5-10 yr olds are 33/102 for 56.2pts
- those priced at 9/1 and shorter are 33/86 for 60.8pts
- those running at 2m3.5f to 3m2f are 26/71 for 65.9pts
- those ridden by Brian Harding are 25/71 for 43.7pts
- those racing 16-75 DSLR are 26/68 for 59.2pts
- hurdlers are 20/65 for 35.1pts
- handicappers are 22/61 for 52.9pts
- at Class 3 : 12/30 for 38.9pts
- here at Carlisle : 5/17 for 7.6pts
And males aged 5 to 10 yrs old at odds of 9/1 and shorter over trips of 2m3.5f to 3m2f, ridden by Brian Harding are 17 from 29 (58.6% SR) for 52.6pts (+181.5% ROI). From those 29 runners, Class 3 to 5 runners are 17/24 for 57.6pts, of which those running here at Carlisle are 5/5 for 19.6pts!
So the call is…a 1pt win bet on Isaacstown Lad at 3/1 BOG with Paddy Power who are currently the standout price. To check that’s still the case, simply…
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REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS