Stat of the Day, 12th March 2016

Friday’s Result :

8.15 Chelmsford : Saved My Bacon @ 10/3 BOG 5th at 11/8 (Held up towards rear, headway when not clear run over 1f out, no danger after)

Saturday’s runner goes in the…

4.05 Ayr:

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

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One For Arthur @ 3/1 BOG


Jockey Peter Buchanan is in fine form of late, having ridden three winners and two placers from his eight races over the last fortnight, with his record on chases standing at 2 winners and a place from three efforts.

He also rides this Ayr track well with 42 winners from 276 (15.2% SR) here since 2008. There is, admittedly, only a small modest profit from backing them blindly (10.6pts = 3.8% ROI), but any blind profit is good and can be refined with logical filters to increase returns.

An obvious initial filter is to check Peter’s record here at Ayr on horses trained by Lucinda Russell, which improves the stat to 38 winners from 232 (16.4% SR) for 16.8pts (+7.25% ROI) profit, figures which themselves can be measured against today’s conditions as follows…

  • males are 38/217 (17.5% SR) for 31.8pts (+14.7% ROI)
  • handicappers are 25/139 (18% SR) for 40.4pts (+29% ROI)
  • chasers are 21/97 (21.7% SR) for 32.2pts (+33.2% ROI)
  • those running 16-30 days since their last outing are 20/86 (23.2% SR) for 39pts (+45.4% ROI)
  • on soft ground : 20/79 (25.3% SR) for 41.7pts (+52.7% ROI)
  • those priced at 4/1 or shorter are 27/60 (45% SR) for 40.9pts (+68.1% ROI)
  • Class 3 runners are 12/55 (21.8% SR) for 36pts (+65.4% ROI)
  • 7 yr olds are 11/43 (25.6% SR) for 27.5pts (+63.9% ROI)
  • those running over today’s trip of 3m 0.5f are 7/28 (25% SR) for 18.4pts (+65.8% ROI)

And now they team up with One For Arthur, who not only fits every one of those nine angles above, he also has some compelling stats of his own, such as a 4/13 record under Peter Buchanan, a 4/8 record in fields of 3 to 8 runners and he’s 4 from 7 at odds of 11/8 to 9/2.

He’s also 2 from 5 over today’s trip, 2 from 3 on soft ground and 2 from 2 here at Ayr.

So the call is…a 1pt win bet on One For Arthur at 3/1 BOG with either Bet365 or Paddy Power, who at 9.20pm were the market leaders. To check what their rivals are offering, simply…

…click here for the betting on the 4.05 Ayr

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Here is today’s racecard…

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