Stat of the Day, 14th March 2016

Saturday’s Result :

4.05 Ayr : One For Arthur @ 3/1 BOG 4th at 9/4 (Held up towards rear and in touch, headway 8 out, ridden and blundered 3 out, weakened before next)

Monday’s runner goes in the…

4.45 Plumpton:

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

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Kapricorne @ 11/4 BOG


Well, initially we have a horse who is 2/9 of soft ground and 2/6 under today’s jockey and since the start of 2010, trainer Sophie Leech’s NH handicappers priced at 2/1 to 18/1 (a pretty broad spectrum!) are 17 from 90 (18.9% SR) when ridden by a 3lb claimer. These runs have produced level stakes profits of 126.3pts at an impressive ROI of 140.3% and we can analyse those runners as follows…

  • males are 16/81 (19.75% SR) for 120pts (+148.2% ROI)
  • those ridden by Killian Moore are 11/52 (21.2% SR) for 66.9pts (+128.6% ROI)
  • chasers are 8/52 (15.4% SR) for 56.7pts (+109.1% ROI)
  • on soft/heavy ground : 8/31 (25.8% SR) for 57.3pts (+184.8% ROI)
  • those travelling 2m6f or further : 6/31 (19.4% SR) for 67.2pts (+216.6% ROI)

And since the start of 2011, Sophie’s NH handicappers dropping down a class to run at odd at odds of 14/1 and shorter are 17/101 (16.8% SR) for 52.8pts (+52.3% ROI) and if we give those 101 runners the SotD treatment, we have….

  • males winning 16 of 92 (17.4% SR) for 49.5pts (+53.8% SR)
  • those aged 7 or older are 16/80 (20% SR) for 63.8pts (+79.8% ROI)
  • those who ran in the last 45 days are 12/74 (16.2% SR) for 40.1pts (+54.2% ROI)
  • Class 5 runners are 10/57 (17.5% SR) for 33.7pts (+59.1% ROI)
  • those finishing 4th to 7th last time out are 14/55 (25.5% SR) for 77.9pts (+141.7% ROI)
  • chasers are 7/45 (15.6% SR) for 35.1pts (+78% ROI)
  • on soft/heavy ground : 6/35 (17.1% SR) for 15.1pts (+43.1% ROI)
  • ridden by Killian Moore : 5/11 (45.5% SR) for 36.4pts (+331% ROI)

And a non-trainer specific stat that might (or might not!) interest you is that since the start of 2012 in Class 4/5 handicap chases, horses priced at 12/1 and shorter ridden by a 3lb claimer who are in the top 2 of the weights before and after all claims are considered have won 94 of 421 (22.3% SR) races for profits of 100.7pts (+23.9% ROI), with those runners broken down as follows…

  • males are 90/387 (23.3% SR) for 112.8pts (+29.2% ROI)
  • 5 to 10 yr olds are 91/386 (23.6% SR) for 115.1pts (+29.8% ROI)
  • those who were PU/RO/Top 5 LTO are 86/339 (25.4% SR) for 125.7pts (+37.1% ROI)
  • and those last seen 6 to 90 days ago are 84/341 (24.6% SR) for 124.2pts (+36.4% ROI)

And a micro from the above? 6-10 yr old males running 6-75 days since they were PU/RO/Top 5 LTO are 67/211 (31.75% SR) for 145.1pts (+68.8% ROI) profit.

So the call is…a 1pt win bet on Kapricorne at 11/4 BOG with any one of the half dozen or more firms with that price. You could take 3/1 from Betway or Ladbrokes, but they’re non-BOG until morning and I’m happy to sacrifice the quarter point incase of adrift. To see what your favourite firm is offering, simply…

…click here for the betting on the 4.45 Plumpton

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Here is today’s racecard…

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