Stat of the Day, 17th March 2016

Wednesday’s Result :

4.25 Bangor : Symphony of Pearls @ 9/2 BOG fell at 6/1 (Chased leaders, mistake 5 out, weakened quickly, behind when fell 3 out)

Thursday’s runner goes in the…

3.15 Hexham:

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

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Cheat The Cheater @ 11/4 BOG


This 9 yr old gelding comes here on a hat-trick, having most recently won at Warwick in a novice handicap 20 days ago over today’s 3m trip on soft ground. He has been raised 5lbs for a 3.5 length success, but his jockey’s claim takes care of more than half of that rise.

And since the start of 2012, handicappers rated (OR) 96 to 122 who won a novice chase last time out, 4 to 45 days ago are 111/427 (26% SR) for 112.7pts (+26.4% ROI), of which…

  • those raised by 2 to 8lbs for the win are 69/284 (24.3% SR) for 65.7pts (+23.1% ROI)
  • those who won by a neck to 4 lengths LTO are 54/200 (27% SR) for 102.9pts (+51.4% ROI)
  • and those raised by 2 to 8 lbs for winning by a neck to 4 lengfths won again on 42 of 152 (27.6% SR) occasions for profits of 77.8pts (+51.2% ROI)

In addition to the above, Class 4 male chasers aged 6 to 9 who won a handicap chase last time out, 11 to 150 days ago by 2 to 10 lengths are 130/504 (25.8% SR) for 86.3pts (+17.1% ROI) since the start of 2010. These 504 can be re-analysed as follows…

  • those last seen 11 to 45 days ago are 120/438 (27.4% SR) for 83.4pts (+19% ROI)
  • those racing over trips of 2m4.5f to 3m2f are 70/276 (25.4% SR) for 94.3pts (+34.2% ROI)
  • those priced at 7/4 to 4/1 are 86/274 (31.4% SR) for 65.6pts (+24% ROI)
  • those who won by 2 to 4 lengths LTO are 50/217 (23% SR) for 38.9pts (+17.9% ROI)
  • 9 yr olds are 31/113 (27.4% SR) for 53.8pts (+47.6% ROI)
  • and here at Hexham, they are 3/7 (42.9% SR) for 24.4pts (+348% ROI)

So the call is…a 1pt win bet on Cheat The Cheater at 11/4 BOG with any one of around half a dozen firms with that price. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply…

…click here for the betting on the 3.15 Hexham

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Here is today’s racecard…

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