Monday’s Result :
4.00 Kelso: Captain Redbeard @ 4/1 BOG WON at 4/1 (In rear, headway before 3 out, led 2 out, kept on well to win by 7 lengths)
Tuesday’s runner goes in the…
Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.
Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.
Pyrshan @ 6/1 BOG
Over the last 12 months, Kielan Woods has ridden 8 winners from 41 rides (19.5% SR) on Graeme McPherson’s handicap hurdlers, resulting in level stakes profits of 45.5pts at an ROI of 111.1%, broken down as follows…
- male runners are 8/38 (21.1% SR) for 48.5pts (+127.7% ROI)
- those racing over trips of 2m5f to 3m2f are 5/24 (20.8% SR) for 50pts (+208.3% ROI)
- in fields of 12 to 15 runners : 4/15 (26.7% SR) for 51.5pts (+343.3% ROI)
- and on horses wearing a tongue toe : 3/12 (25% SR) for 12.3pts (+102.2% ROI)
23 days ago, Pyrshan was 2nd at Southwell comning back from a 10-week break to be defeat by just 3.75 lengths in a Class 3, 3 mile contest. Not only should he be sharper for having had the run, the drop in both class and trip should make this an easier challenge.
It’s also worth noting the winner of that race has since run very well in defeat at Class2 level last weekend, whilst the 5th & 7th placed runners (8.5L and 41L behind Pyrshan respectively) have both won since.
And in addition to the trainer/jockey stats and the collateral form of that last outing, our third prong of attack is that NH handicappers trained by Graeme McPherson, making only their first or second run in the previous 90 days have won 29 of 222 (13.1% SR) for 243.6pts at an ROI of 109.7%. In the context of today’s race, those 222 runners are…
- 27/197 (13.7% SR) for 240.4pts (+122% ROI) on ground deemed good, good to soft or soft
- males are 26/193 (13.5% SR) for 240pts (+124.4% ROI)
- over trips of 2m2.5f to 3m2.5f : 26/189 (13.8% SR) for 258pts (+136.5% ROI)
- 4 to 8 yr olds are 22/164 (13.4% SR) for 194.9pts (+118.8% ROI)
- Class 3/4 runners are 22/147 (15% SR) for 240.9pts (+163.9% ROI)
- hurdlers are 17/1436 (11.9% SR) for 73.4pts (+143.1% ROI)
- those with 1 previous run in the last 90 days : 21/130 (16.2% SR) for 162pts (+124.6% ROI)
- in Novice races : 7/39 (18% SR) for 139.1pts (+356.5% ROI)
And a composite micro from the above? Why not, eh?
OK, here goes… Males, aged 4 to 8 running at Classes 3 to 5 over 2m2.5f to 3m2.5f on good, good to soft or soft ground are 14/95 (14.7% SR) for 184.5pts (+194.2% ROI) and of these 95 runners…
- hurdlers are 9/63 (14.3% SR) for 130.6pts (+207.2% ROI)
- those with 1 run in the last 90 days are 10/57 (17.5% SR) for 127.3pts (+223.3% ROI)
- in Novice races : 6/27 (22.2% SR) for 114.2pts (+422.8% ROI).
And finally (!), Male hurdlers, aged 4 to 8 running at Classes 3 to 5 over 2m2.5f to 3m2.5f on good, good to soft or soft ground in a Novice race with one prior run in the last 90 days are 4/8 (50% SR) for 79.62pts at an unbelievable ROI of 995.2%!
So the call is…a 1pt win bet on Pyrshan at 6/1 BOG. The market hasn’t fully formed just yet (5.30pm Monday), but at least three firms are offering this BOG price, so to see if your preferred bookie is doing the same, simply…
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REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS