Stat of the Day, 24th March 2016

Wednesday’s Result :

8.15 Kempton: Rich Again @ 6/1 BOG 4th at 9/2 (Slowly into stride, held up on inside, headway 2f out, chasing leaders when not clear run and switched right over 1f out, ran on, not reach leaders)

Thursday’s runner goes in the…

5.10 Wolverhampton:

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.


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Skylark Lady @ 9/2 BOG


This 3 yr old filly was given a hopeless task when last seen 25 days ago, beaten by 2.25 lengths, staying on strongly and finishing like a train. Unfortunately that late effort only got her a fifih place, after being held too far off the pace for far too long by her conditional jockey.

The way she closed the contest out suggested that with a bit of a smarter ride, she could well have won that Class 5 contest, so it’s interesting that not only is she dropped in grade, but she’ll have the benefit of the more experienced and in-form Silvestre de Sousa to steer her home this time.

SDS has won 8 times from 30 (26.7% SR) in the last 14 days and a mere tenner on each would have made you a useful £123 profit at an ROI of 41%, whilst going back a little further, there’s even more money to be made from the 35 yr old Brazilian, especially on horses deemed “to have a chance”.

What I mean there, is to back all his rides here at 11/2 and shorter, for since the start of 2012 that gives you 42 winners from 114 bets (36.8% SR) and £311 (+27.2% ROI) from those mythical £10 bets. Closer inspection of those races shows that…

  • he’s 38/99 (38.4% SR) for 39.1pts (+39.5% ROI) in fields of 6 to 12 runners
  • at Classes 5 & 6, he has 37 wins from 93 (39.8% SR) for 32.2pts (+34.6% ROI)
  • over the trips of 9.5f to 14f : 24/53 (45.3% SR) for 26pts (+49.1% ROI)
  • 3yr olds have won 23/48 (47.8% SR) for 25pts (+52% ROI) under his guidance
  • and females are 12/37 (32.4% SR) for 14.6pts (+39.4% ROI)

Today, he makes a fairly rare appearance on the back of a Rae Guest runner, but Rae’s certainly no mug in this sphere either, as in the same 2012/16 timeframe, his A/W handicappers are 20/119 (16.8% SR) for 32pts (+26.9% ROI) with females winning 16 of 95 (16.8% SR) for 41.2pts (+43.3% ROI), whilst his 3 yr olds are 12/62 (19.4% SR) for 40.3pts (+65% ROI).

Rae Guest’s 3yr old female A/W handicappers are 11/53 (20.8% SR) for 45.9pts at an ROI of 86.6% since the start of 2012.

The other major change for Skylark Lady here is that afore-mentioned drop in class, of course and it’s well worth noting that since the start of 2010, Rae Guest’s handicap class droppers are 21/142 (14.8% SR) for 100.3pts (+70.7% ROI) profit and of those 142 runners…

  • females are 18/115 (15.7% SR) for 100.2pts (+87.1% ROI)
  • those dropping down just 1 grade are 18/115 (15.7% SR) for 75.1pts (+65.3% ROI)
  • those last seen 16 to 45 days ago are 13/69 (18.8% SR) for 77.5pts (+112.4% ROI)
  • 3 yr olds are 10/69 (14.5% SR) for 59.8pts (+86.6% ROI)
  • those who finished in the top 5 LTO are 12/61 (19.7% SR) for 49.4pts (+80.9% ROI)
  • Class 6 runners are 8/51 (15.7% SR) for 50pts (+98.1% ROI)

And a slightly narrow composite of those six factors above tells us that 3/4 yr old females down 1 grade to Class 6 after finishing 3rd to 8th, 16-45 days ago are 9/29 (31% SR) for 47.2pts (+162.9% ROI) profit.

So the call is…a 1pt win bet on Skylark Lady at 9/2 BOG. That’s with the Betfair Sportsbook, who were the standout price at 6.50pm Wednesday. Betfred & Totesport offered the same price, but don’t/won’t go BOG until morning, whilst there’s plenty of 4/1 BOG on offer elsewhere. The picture will be clearer when you…

…click here for the betting on the 5.10 Wolverhampton

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Here is today’s racecard…

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