Stat of the Day, 25th March 2016

Thursday’s Result :

5.10 Wolverhampton: Skylark Lady @ 9/2 BOG 7th at 13/8 (Short of room start and dropped to towards rear, effort when badly hampered over 2f out, no chance after)

Friday’s runner goes in the…

4.30 Wolverhampton:

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

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Something Lucky @ 7/2 BOG


Ten unplaced efforts preceded Something Lucky‘s first visit to Wolverhampton 25 days ago, when this 4 yr old gelding broke his duck with a course and distance victory.

Prior to that run, he’d been off the track for 140 days and had a wind op, which clearly helped hime and it is expected that he’ll come on again for having had the run.

And the fact that he won after a string of poor results makes him another of my Wolverhampton “back to form” horses, who are profitable to follow under the right circumstances. What I look for are horses running in hcp races here at Wolverhampton priced at 10/11 to 7/1, 6 to 30 days after an LTO win that was preceded by a string of 3 or more unplaced efforts.

Such horses are 113/425 (26.6% SR) for 90.7pts (+21.4% ROI) profit and can be further analysed as follows…

  • males are 86/321 (26.8% SR) for 70.5pts (+22% ROI)
  • those running at the same trip or 0.5f further than LTO are 75/274 (27.4% SR) for 86.8pts (+31.7% ROI)
  • those who ran/won here at Wolverhampton LTO are 72/272 (26.5% SR) for 57.3pts (+21.1% ROI)
  • 4 to 6 yr olds are 63/222 (28.4% SR) for 73.3pts (33% ROI)
  • those running at 5 or 6 furlongs are 31/121 (25.6% SR) for 25.7pts (+21.2% ROI)

And a composite micro… 3 to 6 yr old males who were course and distance winners here LT) are 30/108 (27.8% SR) for 43.9pts (+40.7% ROI)

So the call is…a 1pt win bet on Something Lucky at 7/2 BOG. That price is currently (12.30am!) available with Hills, SkyBet, BetVictor and Paddy Power, whilst Betway’s 7/2 isn’t BOG until later this morning. To se the full range of odds, simply…

…click here for the betting on the 4.30 Wolverhampton

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Here is today’s racecard…

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