Stat of the Day, 26th March 2016

Friday’s Result :

4.30 Wolverhampton: Something Lucky @ 7/2 BOG 6th at 3/1 (In rear, headway over 1f out, kept on same pace)

Saturday’s runner goes in the…

3.25 Kempton:

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

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Who?

Steelriver @ 100/30 BOG

Why?

Over the last three months, trainer David Barron’s horses are 8 from 42 (19.1% SR), whilst today’s jockey Graham Gibbons is 12 from 67 (17.9% SR) in the same time frame, also winning 5 times in 15 rides for Mr Barron.

This success as a partnership is no new flash in the pan, as since the start of 2010 in standard A/W conditions the duo have 39 wins from 171 (22.8% SR) for level stakes profits 0f 68.5pts (+40.1% ROI), and with today’s race in mind, those 171 runners are…

  • 34/139 (24.5% SR) for 84.1pts (+60.5% ROI) from male runners
  • 23/117 (19.7% SR) for 48.4pts (+41.4% ROI) in handicaps
  • 23/92 (25% SR) for 50.1pts (+54.5% ROI) over trips of 5 & 6 furlongs
  • 5/29 (17.2% SR) for 25pts (+86.1% ROI) at Class 2

and male handicappers over 5 & 6 furlongs are 11/53 (20.8% SR) for 52.1pts (+98.3% ROI), with Class 2 races providing 4 winners from 18 (22.2% SR) for 32pts (+177.9% ROI).

Steelriver is also David’s only runner at the track, but he does tend to pick up plenty of prize money from his solo entrants, with 143 winners from 787 (18.2% SR) such runners since the start of 2010 and a £10 bet on each of them would have made you £1804 profit at an ROI of 23% and these runners are…

  • 117/627 (18.7% SR) for 198.1pts (+31.7% ROI) as males
  • 99/571 (17.3% SR) for 131.2pts (+23% ROI) in handicaps
  • 108/568 (19% SR) for 138pts (+24.3% ROI) over trips of 5 to 7 furlongs
  • 68/320 (21.3% SR) for 201pts (62.8% ROI) when ridden by Graham Gibbons

and those male handicappers ridden by Graham Gibbons over 5 to 7 furlongs are 23/126 (18.3% SR) for 78pts (+61.9% ROI) and of those 123 runners, those who were David’s only runner anywhere that day were winners on 17 of 87 (19.5% SR) occasions rewarding backers with 70.2pts (+80.7% ROI) of level stakes profits.

So the call is…a 1pt win bet on Steelriver at 100/30 BOG with Hills, who are currently the standout price for this runner. There is, however plenty of 3/1 BOG on offer elsewhere, as you’ll see if you…

…click here for the betting on the 3.25 Kempton

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REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today’s racecard…

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