Stat of the Day, 31st March 2016

Wednesday’s Result :

3.40 Exeter: Umberto D’Olivate @ 7/2 BOG 2nd at 15/8 (Made all, pushed along before 3 out, joined next, ridden and headed before last, one pace run-in)

The last of a dismal month, Thursday’s runner goes in the…

3.45 Bangor:

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

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I Am Colin @ 7/2 BOG

Why?

This 7 yr old gelding was a winner on his last hurdles outing in March 2015, so he clearly likes this time of year, but he was then off the track for 8 months before returning as a chaser, where in 4 runs to date he has progressively improved with finishes of 3221.

He lost by a short head (2m4f , heavy) at Warwick two starts ago when carried right by the drifting winner, Merchant of Milan, in a race he should probably have been awarded in the stewards’ room, but made amends by romping to a 9 length success last time out with Merchant of Milan 30 lengths behind him. That was 30 days ago, over 2m 6.5f on heavy ground at Leicester, so I am Colin shouldn’t be found lacking in stamina today.

His trainer Nigel Twiston-Davies is getting a fine tune from his runners at present, as typified by the yard’s 5 winners from 13 runners in the last week and they do pretty well here at Bangor when expected to ie when there’s some market suport, but not hammered!

In numerical terms, we’re talking NTD at Bangor, 2010-16 at 9/4 to 15/2. Which equation gives us 8 winners from 35 (22.9% SR) for 15pts (+42.8% ROI) profit and although this is a small sample size (I’ve a bigger one for you shortly, oo-er missus!), it does throw up some interesting (to me, anyway) profitable angles relating to today’s contest, namely…

  • males are 6/28 (21.4% SR) for 12.7pts (+45.3% ROI)
  • handicappers are 7/26 (26.9% SR) for 14.5pts (+55.6% ROI)
  • chasers are 5/19 (26.3% SR) for 10.2pts (+53.7% ROI)
  • on soft/heavy ground, they are 4/16 (25% SR) for 5.7pts (+35.6% ROI)
  • in hcp chases : 4/16 (25% SR) for 3.7pts (+23.1% ROI)
  • over this 2m4.5f trip : 2/6 (33.33% SR) for 10.2pts (+170.2% ROI)
  • LTO winners are 2/4 (50% SR) for 9.36pts (+234% ROI)

And if we look at the horse, I am Colin‘s last outing, it reinforces the selection, as since the start of 2010, male Class 4 chasers aged 6 to 9 yrs old who were LTO winners of a hcp chase by 2 to 10 lengths 11 to 150 days ago went on to win again on 131 of 509 (25.7% SR) follow-up runs, generating level stakes profits of 84.4pts at a healthy ROI of 16.6% from blind backing.

I fully appreciate that not many people want to blindly blind a subset of 509 runners over 6 and a bit years, so we can refine the selections as follows…

  • those priced at 7/4 to 14/1 are 106/439 (24.2% SR) for 99.6pts (+22.7% ROI)
  • those racing over 2m4.5f to 3m2f are 71/281 (25.3% SR) for 92.3pts (+32.9% ROI)
  • those last seen 21 to 45 days ago are 66/248 (26.6% SR) for 75.3pts (+30.4% ROI)
  • those who won by 5 to 10 lengths LTO are 63/208 (30.3% SR) for 59.9pts (+28.8% ROI)
  • those running on soft ground are 27/101 (26.7% SR) for 22.6pts (+22.4% ROI)
  • and here at Bangor: 6/20 (30% SR) for 4.3pts (+21.5% ROI)

and since 2011, those priced at 7/4 to 14/1 over 2m4.5f to 3m2f who won by 5 to 10 lengths 21 to 75 days ago are 20/46 (43.5% SR) for 62.2pts (+135.2% ROI), of which those running on soft ground are 6/13 (46.2% SR) for 19.1pts (+147.2% ROI) and those racing here at Bangor are 3/4 (75% SR) for 8.8pts (+220% ROI)

So the call is…a 1pt win bet on I am Colin at 7/2 BOG with any of the half dozen or so firms offering the same price. To see what odds your bookie is giving…

…click here for the betting on the 3.45 Bangor

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today’s racecard…

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