Stat of the Day, 1st April 2016

Thursday’s Result :

3.45 Bangor: I Am Colin @ 7/2 BOG 4th at 3/1 (Chased leaders, 2nd after 3 out, every chance next, ridden and lost 2nd between last two, well held in 3rd when not fluent last, weakened into 4th run-in)

The first of hopefully a better month, Friday’s runner goes in the…

8.15 Wolverhampton:

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

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Jarir @ 5/1 BOG


Trainer Richard Hannon (Jnr) is 13/32 (40.6% SR) for 11.6pts (36.1% ROI) with his sub-6/1 runners here at Wolverhampton, whilst jockey Sean Levey is 20/56 (35.7% SR) for 34.5pts (+61.6% ROI) on similarly priced horses and together they are 4/6 for 13.4pts as a partnership at thos odds.

They now team up with Jarir who won over 1m2f at Lingfield 12 weeks ago, but failed to deal with an extra two furlongs seven weeks later, when fading into fourth place. He now drops back to a more favourable trip and is of interest today as one of my “1/2,3,4 horses”.

Initially I look for horses that won two starts ago (ie the 1) and who were then 2nd, 3rd or 4th (the 2,3,4) LTO 16 to 60 days ago. There are, of course, other criteria : April to October, no heavy ground, aged 3 to 5 running over 5 to 10f.

Horses fitting the above criteria are 366/2149 (17% SR) for 239.2pts (+11.1% ROI) since the start of April 2012, with the following of interest today…

  • those running at the same trip as LTO or dropping back by up to 2.5f are 278/1551 (17.9% SR) for 254.3pts (+16.4% ROI)
  • those last seen 26 to 60 days ago are 191/1053 (18.1% SR) for 248.5pts (+23.6% ROI)
  • and those fitting both of the above are 150/765 (19.6% SR) for 288.1pts (+37.7% ROI), of which those racing over 9.5/10 furlongs are 26/130 (20% SR) for 66.2pts (+50.9% ROI)

So the call is…a 1pt win bet on Jarir at 5/1 BOG with any of the half dozen or so firms offering the same price. To see what odds your bookie is giving…

…click here for the betting on the 8.15 Wolverhampton

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Here is today’s racecard…

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