Stat of the Day, 5th April 2016

Monday’s Result :

3.30 Warwick: Dawson City @ 11/4 BOG (11/5 after R4) 2nd at 13/8 (We got 135% of SP of one that ran well enough, outpaced in the midsection, stayed on well and perhaps 3m was too short?)

Tuesday’s runner goes in the…

3.35 Newton Abbot:

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

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Winged Express @ 7/2 BOG


Well, he would appear to be well suited by today’s race conditions and comes here in good form, having won over fences last time out 38 days ago. Prior to that he finished 2213 over hurdles and has won on both soft & heavy ground in the past, as well as over today’s trip. He’s also won twice from 6 races under Ian Popham, has a couple of wins at this grade and he’s 2 from 4 in the hood.

All the above are positives to me, but none more so than the fact that this one is trained by the relatively new trainer, Alex Dunn, who has really hit the ground running with 30 winners from 219 NH handicappers (13.7% SR) since the start of 2014 and this has produced 96.6pts (+44.1% ROI) profits to date. And in respect of today’s encounter, those runners are…

  • 15/129 (11.6% SR) for 49.8pts (+38.6% ROI) over hurdles
  • 19/105 (18.1% SR) for 28.3pts (+26.9% ROI) on soft/heavy ground
  • 17/81 (21% SR) for 60.1pts (+74.2% ROI) at Class 5
  • 12/73 (16.4% SR) for 20pts (+27.4% ROI) over 2m/2m0.5f
  • 8/29 (27.6% SR) for 7.2pts (+24.8% ROI) from LTO winners
  • 3/9 (33.3% SR) for 50.1pts (+556.7% ROI) under Ian Popham.

And Class 5 hcp hurdlers on soft/heavy ground are 9/31 (29% SR) for 37.8pts (+121.9% ROI), with those competing at 1m7.5f to 2m2.5f winning 7 of 19 (36.8% SR) for 40.1pts (+210.8% ROI).

So the call is…a 1pt win bet on Winged Express at 7/2 BOG with Paddy Power or SkyBet, whilst there’s 10/3 BOG on offer elsewhere. For a fuller market picture, simply…

…click here for the betting on the 3.35 Newton Abbot

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Here is today’s racecard…

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