Stat of the Day, 7th April 2016

Wednesday’s Result :

7.45 Kempton: Street Duel @ 100/30 BOG still to run (report to follow later)

Thursday’s runner goes in the…

3.15 Taunton:

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

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Who?

Minellacelebration at 5/1 BOG.

Why?

This 6yr old gelding wa sa course and distance winner last time out, 17 days ago and comes back to the track with a 3 from 5 (11331) record in handicap hurdle contests. And with today’s race in mind, those 5 outings have produced the following…

  • 3 wins from 4 at odds below 11/2, 3 from 4 within 3 weeks of his last run, 3 from 4 in fields of 6-11 runners
  • he’s 2 from 4 with today’s jockey and 2 from 3 at Class 4.

And in hcp hurdle races of 6-11 runners at odds below 11/2 within 3 weeks of his last run, he has three wins from three for 9.28pts (+309.3% ROI) profit and two of those runs were at Class 4 and two were under today’s jockey. They weren’t the same two races, but that LTO win was a Class 4 race with today’s jockey!

In addition to the specific stats surrounding the horse and his suitability to today’s conditions, we really should look at a much bigger general picture and to do this, I’m going to talk about course and distance handicap hurdle winners returning to the scene of a C&D win off the back of a win (anywhere) last time out.

And since 2008, such horses have won 295 of 1505 (19.6% SR) for 187.5pts (+12.5% ROI) profit. 1505 is a reliable enough sample size, but as it’s likely to be too big for some of you, let me break them down as follows…

  • those running over the same C&D as LTO are 211/1034 (20.4% SR) for 163.7pts (+15.9% ROI)
  • those last seen 11 to 30 days ago are 157/819 (19.2% SR) for 180.9pts (+22.2% ROI)
  • those racing over trips of 2m3f to 3m2f are 139/692 (20.1% SR) for 144.5pts (+20.9% ROI)
  • on good ground : 95/489 (19.4% SR) for 127.8pts (+26.1% ROI)
  • 6yr olds are 82/387 (21.2% SR) for 83.7pts (+21.7% ROI)

And a small composite micro you could use is : UK hcp hurdlers at the same C&D as LTO, 11-30 DSLR, running over 2m4f to 3m2f on good/good to soft ground for 32 winners from 128 (25% SR) and profits of 122.1pts (+95.4% ROI), from which…

  • Class 3/4 runners are 28/95 (29.5% SR) for 134.6pts (+141.7% ROI)
  • in the last three years : 18/60 (30% SR) for 83.5pts (+139.1% ROI)
  • 5/6 yr olds are 10/45 (22.2% SR) for 31.6pts (+70.3% ROI)
  • AND horses fitting all three of the above criteria are 7/17 (41.2% SR) for 42.1pts (+247.5% ROI)

So the call is…a 1pt win bet on Minellacelebration at 5/1 BOG with any of Bet365, Coral, Hills and/or BetVictor, who were the four market leaders at 6.40pm on Wednesday evening. To see what your bookie is offering, simply…

…click here for the betting on the 3.15 Taunton

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today’s racecard…

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