Wednesday’s Result :
7.45 Kempton: Street Duel @ 100/30 BOG still to run (report to follow later)
Thursday’s runner goes in the…
Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.
Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.
Minellacelebration at 5/1 BOG.
This 6yr old gelding wa sa course and distance winner last time out, 17 days ago and comes back to the track with a 3 from 5 (11331) record in handicap hurdle contests. And with today’s race in mind, those 5 outings have produced the following…
- 3 wins from 4 at odds below 11/2, 3 from 4 within 3 weeks of his last run, 3 from 4 in fields of 6-11 runners
- he’s 2 from 4 with today’s jockey and 2 from 3 at Class 4.
And in hcp hurdle races of 6-11 runners at odds below 11/2 within 3 weeks of his last run, he has three wins from three for 9.28pts (+309.3% ROI) profit and two of those runs were at Class 4 and two were under today’s jockey. They weren’t the same two races, but that LTO win was a Class 4 race with today’s jockey!
In addition to the specific stats surrounding the horse and his suitability to today’s conditions, we really should look at a much bigger general picture and to do this, I’m going to talk about course and distance handicap hurdle winners returning to the scene of a C&D win off the back of a win (anywhere) last time out.
And since 2008, such horses have won 295 of 1505 (19.6% SR) for 187.5pts (+12.5% ROI) profit. 1505 is a reliable enough sample size, but as it’s likely to be too big for some of you, let me break them down as follows…
- those running over the same C&D as LTO are 211/1034 (20.4% SR) for 163.7pts (+15.9% ROI)
- those last seen 11 to 30 days ago are 157/819 (19.2% SR) for 180.9pts (+22.2% ROI)
- those racing over trips of 2m3f to 3m2f are 139/692 (20.1% SR) for 144.5pts (+20.9% ROI)
- on good ground : 95/489 (19.4% SR) for 127.8pts (+26.1% ROI)
- 6yr olds are 82/387 (21.2% SR) for 83.7pts (+21.7% ROI)
And a small composite micro you could use is : UK hcp hurdlers at the same C&D as LTO, 11-30 DSLR, running over 2m4f to 3m2f on good/good to soft ground for 32 winners from 128 (25% SR) and profits of 122.1pts (+95.4% ROI), from which…
- Class 3/4 runners are 28/95 (29.5% SR) for 134.6pts (+141.7% ROI)
- in the last three years : 18/60 (30% SR) for 83.5pts (+139.1% ROI)
- 5/6 yr olds are 10/45 (22.2% SR) for 31.6pts (+70.3% ROI)
- AND horses fitting all three of the above criteria are 7/17 (41.2% SR) for 42.1pts (+247.5% ROI)
So the call is…a 1pt win bet on Minellacelebration at 5/1 BOG with any of Bet365, Coral, Hills and/or BetVictor, who were the four market leaders at 6.40pm on Wednesday evening. To see what your bookie is offering, simply…
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