Thursday’s Result :
3.15 Taunton: Minellacelebration @ 5/1 BOG 2nd (Beaten half a length. Did absolutely everything right, before dossing on the run in and getting caught by a horse seven lengths back over the final flight)
A change of stewardship, and hopefully a change of luck, as Chris takes a break for a couple of weeks, so it’s me – Matt – in the chair for a fortnight. The approach will change marginally in that my style is less specific than Chris’s with regards to atomic detail of the data, but the core principle – a stat on which to hang our punting hat – will be the same, of course.
Friday’s runner goes in the…
Roger Varian has quickly made a name for himself, finishing in the top 15 in the trainers’ table last season.
He has an excellent record at Wolverhampton: in the last five years, he’s saddled 126 horses at Dunstall Park, 39 of which have won (31%) and 83 of which have made the frame (66%). They were collectively worth a profit of 40.95 units (32.5% ROI).
Jack Mitchell has ridden for Varian at Wolver 28 times during the last five years. He’s won seven, a quarter, of those rides; and placed a remarkable 71.43% of the time. Win profit amounted to 18.55 units.
And keep in mind that they didn’t get off the mark together until the tenth attempt, meaning they’ve scored 7 from their last 18 (39%).
Mitchell and Varian team up this evening with a single horse, Moueenn, in a seven furlong maiden. They face an odds on favourite from the Hannon stable.
That yard has not started in its typical fashion and is just two from 26 in the past fortnight (-20.06). Compare that with Varian’s fortnightly figures of four wins from seven runners, and you can see why I want to bet against the odds on favourite.
The market is catching up with this Varian angle, naturally enough, but at 5/2 in a place, I think Moueenn is worth the play, if veering towards the low end compared with SotD’s usual offerings…
Win only then, at 5/2 with Paddy.
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