Stat of the Day, 9th April 2016

Friday’s Result :

8.20 Wolverhampton: Moueenn @ 5/2 BOG 2nd (Beaten a neck but, in truth, well held by the winner)

5/2 for you early birds about a 7/4 shot is solid enough, but the winner at any cost boys are crowing “You can’t eat value” at us Stat of the Day’ers. We need the wheel to turn. It will, it’s just a case of when. Sooner rather than later, please, Lady Luck.

Saturday’s runner goes in the…

4.30 Sedgefield

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A Class 3 mares’ handicap hurdle in which the top one, Card Game, may have the best hand. Trained by Malcolm Jefferson, she’s dropping in grade after not getting involved in a good ground big field Class 2 last time out. Prior to that she’d won back to back handicaps, both in Class 4, one of which was for today’s five pound claimer, Jamie Hamilton.

That’s all well and good, but what about the stat? It’s Jefferson’s record at Sedgefield: 29 wins (28%) and 52 places (50%) from 103 runs in the last five years. They were worth a profit of 51.3 units.

Focusing on handicaps only, the win/place percentages are roughly the same – 19 wins, 33 places, from 65 runs – as is the profit (49.38), albeit from a third less runners. That means ROI improves from 50% to 76%.

Jefferson is in excellent recent form, too, and boasts the full set of four green trainer form indicators on the race card. In the last 30 days, he’s saddled six winners from 19 runners for a +6.25 point return.

The pairing with jockey Jamie Hamilton is a recent one. Indeed they’ve teamed up just nine times to date, with four winners to show for it, all in their last five runs. That includes a two from two record when partnering in handicaps.

Card Game is just seven pounds higher than her last win, under similar conditions and, with as many as three that want to go on in the quintet of starters, her waited with run style should be well suited. As short as 5/2 with Lads, she’s 4/1 with Paddy, 7/2 generally. A one point win bet at 4/1 BOG is the advice.

To see what your bookie is offering, simply…

…click here for the betting on the 4.30 Sedgefield

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!


Here is today’s racecard…

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