Stat of the Day, 12th April 2016

Monday’s Result :

2.00 Redcar: Mulwith @ 3/1 BOG 5th at 9/2 (Outpaced, faded, long last)

It was a case of ‘from the sublime to ridiculous’ on Monday, as Mulwith broke all right but could never go the gallop. He was eventually eased right off and virtually pulled up. Ignoring the -1 on the scoresheet for a second, it’s very hard to know what to make of the run. With the yard in form and presumably plenty of juveniles close to ready, Barron knew the ground was deep and presumably expected a lot better. Market vibes weren’t amazing, but still, this was a lamentable effort. The third horse, Another Angel, missed the break by most of ten lengths but, under tender riding, was only beaten two lengths at the line. He’s worth following though this run won’t have been lost on many. Next!

Tuesday’s runner goes in the…

2.25 Exeter

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Tom George is a man in form. In the last fortnight, he’s saddled six winners (40%) and three further placed horses (60%) from 15 runners, for a profit at SP of 17.25 points. In the last 30 days it’s 11/32 for +20.25.

He has two runners on the Exeter card, where his record in handicaps since 2013 is a healthy four from 17 (23.5%) for 11.5 units of profit.

Paddy Brennan has ridden five from eleven of the George horses in the past month, including most notably God’s Own at Aintree, and has registered a profit of 15.5 units in the process.

They team up with one on Tuesday – Wild West Wind – and I’m taking the hint. The seven year old Westerner gelding gets in here off 123, three pounds higher than when second on his handicap debut a month ago. He tries a similar trip but on slightly drier ground – the quickest he’s encountered to date – and on just his sixth career start he’s taken to improve past some talented but more exposed rivals.

The Tizzard horse, Valhalla, makes its ‘cap debut for a yard with a 2 from 30 two year record in that context; and Harry Fry’s similarly lightly raced A Plein Temps will struggle to head Toby Lerone early and, in any case, Harry is 0 from 15 in the past fortnight. The rest are, as I say, pretty well known to the handicapper. That doesn’t mean they can’t win, of course, just that it makes sense to lean towards upside potential.

A one point win bet, then, at 9/2 on Wild West Wind. The price is currently available with bet365 and Skybet

To see what your bookie is offering, simply…

…click here for the betting on the 2.25 Exeter

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Here is today’s racecard…

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