It’s been a good week for Gold subscribers, including me. And it promises to get even better very soon.
As you know, Geegeez Gold covers a lot of bases in terms of form study, with our grand(iose?) aspiration to create the most innovative, user-friendly, cost-effective computer form book in Britain.
To be frank, much of the competition is weak. Either the content is good but the presentation and usability is a bit, well, 1980’s; or the user experience is a bit simpler, but the content is thin. Or, in the case of some of the major race card websites, neither is especially well done.
That’s their problem. Ours is to continue developing innovative solutions to punting problems. More of that below, but first I wanted to catch you up with a couple of recent successes.
One of Gold’s more popular features is a report called Trainer/Jockey Combo. As the name suggests, it highlights the record of key personnel when partnering up. Nothing earth-shattering in that. But the way the data is presented – with four different views – and a set of filters to narrow down to what you, the user, wants to see, is critical.
A couple of months ago, I published an email from a reader, Andy, who explained how he was using the TJ Combo to great effect. Since then, some of you have been adopting a similar approach and, in truth, chipping away somewhat – no great wins, no great losses. That’s the story of real world betting, when one shakes free of extravagant (and typically unsubstantiated) claims.
Anyway, this week – on Tuesday – Andy’s ol’ TJ Combo method came up trumps. I’ll let Gold subscriber, eshaness, explain, via the email he sent me that evening:
But it wasn’t just eshaness. Here’s Chris J.
And it wasn’t just eshaness and Chris J. No, Chris H was on the mark too…
Those sort of payouts don’t happen every day, naturally, nor even once every month. But the day-to-day washes its face, and keeps subscribers in the game for red letter days like Tuesday.
On a more personal level, I’ve been having a good time of it too, using Gold of course (I no longer have any need to look anywhere else for horse racing form information, outside of big race trends, for which I use horseracebase).
Now, before I go on, the usual statements apply: I’m not sharing the below to gloat. There’s little nutritional value in that. Rather, I’m keen to showcase ways by which you might profit from Gold, and what is possible. I know you know that, but just wanted to be totally clear. Phew.
Anyway, using the tools and insights in Gold, I managed to scoop £2 of the placepot at Aintree on Saturday, in spite of a number of my back up horses missing the frame. The dividend paid £697. For £1. So two of those was nice.
Now, I have to admit that my stake across the full perm ran to a fairly hefty £246. That’s at the upper end of my normal placepot staking, and is only justified on the big days when there’s a lot of ‘mug money’ washing around the pools.
To quickly whizz you through my perm, the first leg went poorly for me, as I had 20/1 Silsol (3rd) on my main tickets along with 8/1 Squouateur (6th, no good). I also had 20/1 At Fishers Cross (5th, beaten a fast diminishing nose for 4th, no good) on a back up ticket. The jolly, If In Doubt, looked like he’d be stuffed but ran on very well to make frame. Pity. At that point I was resigned to losing on the bet with three very strong favourites to follow.
Yorkhill, Douvan and Thistlecrack all obliged, and in each case I’d taken an alternate on a back up ticket. In each case, my alternate was off the board.
Two legs left and the placepot was paying less than £3, the favourite having made the frame in each of the first four races. But things can change fast, and my inclusion of Virak in a brave (short-stacked, ahem) three pick leg proved good enough. The first three home were 50/1, 12/1 Virak, and 14/1, and they turned a sub-£3 prognosis into a £160 one, in a single race. Incredible.
The last leg was the Grand National and, again, I’d gone main picks only, no back up tickets. I had five of the 39 starters, excluding a horse I’d tipped and backed in my Nash preview – Vics Canvas. He was 100/1 so you can see why I left him off the ticket. He also finished third!
Happily – for me, at least – I also had 2nd placed The Last Samuri. And, again, I had the fifth placed horse, Goonyella, which was good for an each bet struck earlier in the week, but no good for the pot of places. £2 then, and a profit of £1,148.20 after stakes.
It’s ungrateful to talk of what if’s in situations like this, but I did have the first unplaced horse home in each of legs 1, 2, 3, 4, and 6!
Then, a couple of days later, a small ‘caveman’ ticket (i.e. single ticket, with even money and 12/1 pokes afforded equal weight) at Redcar returned £436.52 for an £18 stake. I won’t bore you with the full scorecard again, but suffice to say I have a few ‘hacks’ when it comes to placepotting.
One is to wait until very late before adding in my first race selections when that first race is either a maiden (especially a two year old maiden) or a novice event. I’m looking for decent support for one that might have been missed by most of the tickets already in the pool. When I can’t find any such horses, I usually spread out a bit. That’s what I did here, and was rewarded with the two rags of the five horse field coming home 1-2.
The Gold tools were all over Mitchum in leg two – he lagged up – and Albert Boy was a winning banker in leg three. I then had a few options in the second half of the bet; options that included the 1-2 in leg four, the 5/1 winner in leg five and the 1-2 in leg six.
To balance things a touch, I can tell you I lost on the placepot today (Wednesday) – I played Cheltenham and, incredibly, left the odds-on favourite out of the final ‘win only’ leg. Careless, even though I did think this would have been too soon after his Aintree run at the weekend.
But even after dropping most of £100 on that ‘pot, one moderate fancy tonight – based on a strong draw bias I noticed after (sadly) Stat of the Day was beaten over the same course and distance earlier on the card – led to two winners.
To be honest, I’ve never had much luck at Kempton. It’s not a track I feel I have a strong handle on. But I did know that early position was crucial, and I was reminded that an inside draw over six furlongs was a big advantage – look at this, from the draw tab:
Such linearity, and such a fat sample size, is rare in flat racing draw data. So this is a strong, and noteworthy, correlation. For the record, Instant Expert backed up the good stall position for Picket Line, and a quick check of his last run over course and distance revealed he was drawn out very wide. That changed his normal prominent run style and also excused a rare moderate effort. To top it off he had the second highest speed figure in the field and looked to have a decent chance of getting the run of the race.
Anyway, it’s obviously easy after the fact.
The bet on Showmethewayavrilo was an interest bet just as I was starting to write this post!
Again, history is boring. Not quite as boring as the ‘after time police’, who will be dribbling sputum over their grungy keyboards as they read this (seriously, get a life!), but pretty boring nevertheless. So I shall endeavour to blog my use the tools ahead of the event in a few races next week, if time allows. I’m very keen to do more to showcase the Gold kit, as I think many readers could benefit from seeing it put through its paces, regardless of the results in the microcosm of a race or two’s examples.
That’s what is already in situ, then. But what of the future? Well, we have a few things in development close to a ‘go live’ date, and they include a sire report, some pace/draw composite info, and Full Form v2.0
Sire Snippets Report
This new report, which should be live before the end of the month, will show the two-year performance of all sires with progeny entered on the day in four views:
– All runs
– Race Type
– Age Range
– Distance Range
It’s a barometer more than anything else, but I expect it to be especially useful in races where there is little or no form to go, or in situations where a horse is trying markedly different conditions for the first time (big step up in trip, material going change, etc)
This is an ambitious one. Most people who successfully use draw data also look to the pace set up in races: the two tend to go hand in hand. But it is very hard to find any automation, or visualization, marrying the pair.
My developers have a specification to pull together our draw and pace info into both a data and a graphical view. To be honest, I’m not sure how the latter will turn out – it’s quite a bold concept. If it’s no good, we’ll ditch it. But the data view WILL help. I’m hoping the pictorial version will be a lot simpler to consume but, as I say, we’ll have to see on that.
Full Form Filter 2.0
I really like FFF – it’s a great filtering tool and, since we went live with it, it’s been mimicked in a couple of places, one very high profile. (And fair play, the more good tools out there the better for punters. It also gives me carte blanche to nick stuff of those guys if/when I find something I like!!)
So we’re raising the game a touch by fleshing out the filters, and providing users with a bit more info, most notably profit and loss figures for the selected filters. Here’s a very short 17 second video, in which I scan all trainers in a race for their record in handicaps at the course.
Pausing the video at any point will allow you to have a little scout around the new layout, which includes course characteristics for the first time. Keep in mind that the formatting has yet to be finalized and, especially, that there’s a big empty space top right. We might put something in there… 😉
So those are the next development items on the agenda. We’re also working on some grander long-term plans in the background – more of those in six months or so – and we have a packed workstack of new items coming soon.
It’s a really exciting project and, after three years or so where we were playing catch up with existing players, we’re now in a solid position to really start innovating and pushing the boundaries not just of the available data but most importantly of how readily it can be consumed. If you had more time, you could study more form. But if form study took less time, you could also study more form. That’s my core belief: great tools that can be used profitably by anyone regardless of experience or available time.
I think, and hope, we’re making progress to that end.
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p.s. what do you think of the new features in the pipeline? Useful? And what would you like to see added to Gold? Leave a comment and we’ll see what we can do. Oh, and if you’ve cashed a tidy score recently off the back of Geegeez content, do share your joy with us. And thanks in advance!