Stat of the Day, 14th April 2016

Wednesday’s Result :

6.20 Kempton: King Of Spin @ 10/3 BOG 5th at 9/2 (Held up in mid-division, ridden over 3f out, headway over 1f out, not trouble leaders)

We were undone by the draw as much as anything, with our lad – drawn 10 – given a waiting ride. The first two home meanwhile were drawn 1 and 2, and were always front rank. I was aware of this when I made the selection, but I under-estimated the draw bias, which is strong at Kempton over six furlongs.

Thursday’s runner goes in the…

3.25 Limerick

Truth be told, I really struggled to find a horse I was happy to nominate today. There were a handful of decent priced animals with credible each way chances, but not a lot at 5/1 or shorter that I wanted to be with.

In the end, I’ve gone with Routes Choice, for her ‘line of green’ profile, and especially her two from two place record on heavy ground.

Not all ‘line of green’ horses make The Shortlist report, and this lass is a good example. To feature on that report a horse must have won (or placed) at least twice, to ensure we don’t get muddled by single winners under similar conditions.

In the case of Routes Choice, she has won at Limerick on heavy ground at around this distance (a furlong shorter), on her first start upped from two mile contests. With just four runs to her name so far, she has obvious scope to improve further on this handicap bow.

The form of her maiden run has worked out well, the second and third placing on their only subsequent starts, and the fifth (evens fav on the day) winning next time out.

That is about as good as it gets from a stats perspective today, with Routes Choice’s two from two place record on heavy putting her right in contention for SotD nomination; and her form credentials pushing her over the line.

I’ll stop short of apologizing for what only barely constitutes a stat-based pick, but sometimes there simply aren’t many appealing options. Anyway, she’s 7/2 generally and that’s the usual one point win bet. Good luck.

To see what your bookie is offering, simply…

…click here for the betting on the 3.25 Limerick

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REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today’s racecard…