Stat of the Day, 20th April 2016

Tuesday’s Result :

7.05 Sedgefield: Teo Vivo @ 5/1 BOG still to run (Tracked winner until before 2 out, stayed on same pace, 4th and no extra last)

I have an appointment at Brisbane Road for Leyton vs Plymouth this evening, so it’s an early post, and a pick in the…

5.00 Perth

Nicky Richards has had a great couple of seasons after a spell in the wilderness, and one of the most noteworthy aspects of that performance has been his record with horses moving into handicaps for the first time.

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Indeed, in the last two years, Richards has run 19 handicap debutants, with almost half – nine – winning. That 47% strike rate was worth a profit of 29.58 units, and is good enough to get Ballyboker Breeze the nod for Wednesday.

The horse is also having its first start for Nicky, having moved from Donald McCain’s yard as part of the Rooneys’ exodus from the Grand National-winning trainer’s barn.

Richards has been in excellent recent form – three from nine in the last fortnight, five from 18 in the past month – and has a very good mid-term track record at Perth, with nine of his 14 runners at the northernmost UK track making the frame in the past year.

It’s a very competitive race, and I’m all about the handicap first time angle, for a one point win bet on Ballyboker Breeze at 13/2 BOG with bet365 and Betfair Sportsbook. Only a handful of firms have priced up at this stage, so keep an eye out for better than that. For the record, we’ll go with 13/2.

To see what the best prices are…

…click here for the betting on the 5.00 Perth

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Here is today’s racecard…

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